油脂周报：短期供需平衡，中期有偏紧预期-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indian and Southeast Asian origin vegetable oil low inventories, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, limited growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil production, and the increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia leading to expected decline in exportable volume support the oil price center. The oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose real - supply and demand, but with a tightening expectation. Before the inventories in sales regions and origin regions are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from sales region demand, a mid - term stable - buying idea can be applied. In the short term, due to the weakening of commodity sentiment caused by the fermentation of the trade war, it is advisable to wait and see [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Overview: This week, the three major oils and fats fluctuated. Foreign capital seats continuously reduced their net long positions in oils and fats, mainly due to the sharp decline in crude oil depressing the valuation of oils and fats. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil improved, it did not exceed expectations, with a year - on - year increase of about 15% in the first 15 days of October, indicating average downstream demand or high oil production in other regions. Indonesia's proposal of the B50 plan in 2026, possible increase in export taxes, and implementation of further DMO policies triggered a rebound in the oil market, but the lack of a schedule made the market rally unsustainable [11] - International Oils and Fats: The October MPOB monthly report showed that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil accumulated to 2.36 million tons, with a slight decline in production and a slight increase in exports. The significant decline in domestic apparent consumption led to a year - on - year increase of about 350,000 tons in Malaysian palm oil inventory. In Indonesia, if production cannot be maintained at a high level in the long term and global oil demand is stable, and considering the upcoming production - reduction season after the fourth quarter, the expectation of low inventory in Indonesia will continue, supporting palm oil prices in the medium and long term. In September, India imported 1.6 million tons of oils and fats, with a stock increase of 140,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 1.46 million tons, slightly lower than last year but still at a good level [11] - Domestic Oils and Fats: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak, and the spot basis was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was about 315,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient supply. Among them, rapeseed oil inventory was 150,000 tons higher than last year, palm oil inventory was 27,000 tons higher, and soybean oil inventory increased by 120,000 tons year - on - year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will maintain a slightly downward trend from a high level. Palm oil imports are expected to remain at a moderately low level, keeping inventory stable. The high price of rapeseed oil has slowed down the inventory - reduction progress. However, due to the high margin required for importing Canadian rapeseed, the total domestic oil inventory will remain high in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium term [11] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, consider buying on dips when the market stabilizes. For now, due to the short - term weakening of commodity sentiment caused by the trade war, it is recommended to wait and see [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of Malaysian palm oil futures contracts, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22] 3.3 Supply Side - Production and Exports of Malaysian Palm Oil: The report provides charts of the monthly production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil from 2021 - 2025, showing the trends in production and exports over the years [27] - Production and Exports of Indonesian Palm Oil: Charts of the monthly production and export volume of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil from 2021 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the production and export trends [28] - Soybean and Rapeseed Supply: Charts of the weekly arrival volume, port inventory of soybeans, and monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are provided, showing the supply situation of these raw materials [29][31] - Palm - Producing Region Weather: Charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing regions, along with forecasts, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate are presented, which may affect palm oil production [33][34] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Total Inventory of Three Major Domestic Oils: A chart shows the total inventory of three major domestic oils from 2021 - 2025, reflecting the inventory trend [40] - Inventory and Profit of Each Oil: Charts of the import profit, commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans, the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the coastal spot average crushing profit of rapeseed, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided, showing the profit and inventory situation of each oil [42][44][45] 3.5 Cost Side - Cost of Malaysian Palm Oil: Charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil are presented, showing the cost situation of palm oil [50] - Cost of Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil: Charts of the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed are provided, reflecting the cost of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [53] 3.6 Demand Side - Oil Trading Volume: Charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year are presented, showing the trading volume trends [56] - Biodiesel Profit: Charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) are provided, reflecting the profit situation of biodiesel [58]