鸡蛋周报：弱势筑底行情-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of eggs still has a rebound expectation, but the space may be limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the future spot price increase can cover the premium given by each contract under the expectation of high inventory and weak demand. Only a price increase exceeding expectations can push up the futures price, which requires excessive elimination, low enough prices, and strong enough stocking expectations. Currently, these conditions are not met. Considering that it is the traditional stocking season for eggs, the spot price has limited room to fall further, but there is no strong driving force for a significant increase. Therefore, the futures market is expected to remain in a weak bottoming state, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: After the National Day, egg prices continued to decline due to sufficient supply and heavy rainfall. However, as prices dropped to a low level, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the market circulation accelerated after the weather improved. Egg prices rebounded slightly in the second half of last week. This week, the breeding loss deepened, and the elimination of old chickens accelerated. The average age of chickens remained at a high of 499 days. The prices of large - sized eggs in Heishan, Guantao, and Huilongguan increased, while that in Dongguan decreased. The inventory of laying hens is still high, and the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered after the temperature drop. The market has sufficient large and medium - sized eggs and a slight shortage of small - sized eggs. It is expected that egg prices will rise and then stabilize next week, with a slight increase possible in the future [11]. - Replenishment and Elimination: Affected by the continuous low egg prices and breeding losses, the national replenishment volume in September decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Since September, egg prices have been weaker than normal, and due to seasonal factors, the elimination of old chickens has increased significantly. The price of culled chickens has dropped to a multi - year low, and the average age of chickens has further decreased to 499 days, but it is still far from excessive elimination [11]. - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 30 million compared to August and a year - on - year increase of 6% compared to last year's 1.288 billion. Based on previous replenishment, the inventory is expected to continue to increase, peaking at 1.373 billion in November this year, with a slight increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, it will still remain high, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [11]. - Demand Side: The pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals is almost over, and post - holiday consumption has become dull. However, as the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs have improved. The consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing it before the Spring Festival [11]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the possibility of a low - level rebound in November and December. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: After the National Day, egg prices declined and then rebounded slightly. The prices of large - sized eggs in different regions showed different trends. The inventory of laying hens is high, and after the temperature drop, the egg - laying rate and egg weight have recovered. It is expected that egg prices will rise and then stabilize next week, with a slight increase possible in the future [20]. - Basis and Spread: As the spot price declined after the festival, the basis of the futures market returned to a low level, driving the spread to decline [23]. - Culled Chicken Price: Due to the weak performance of egg prices during the peak season, the number of old chickens being sold has increased, and the price of culled chickens has dropped significantly. However, the average age of chickens remains at a high of 499 days. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of old - chicken elimination [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment: In September, the national egg - laying hen replenishment volume decreased to 78.4 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, affected by low egg prices and breeding losses [33]. - Culled Chicken Sales: Since September, due to weak egg prices and seasonal factors, the elimination of old chickens has increased significantly. The price of culled chickens has dropped to a multi - year low, and the average age of chickens has decreased to 499 days, but it is still far from excessive elimination [36]. - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of September, the inventory of laying hens was 1.368 billion, slightly lower than expected. Based on previous replenishment, the inventory is expected to continue to increase, peaking at 1.373 billion in November this year. Although it will decline later, it will still remain high, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - The pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals is almost over, and post - holiday consumption has become dull. However, as the temperature drops, the storage conditions for eggs have improved. The consumption side may experience a process of first accumulating inventory and then reducing it before the Spring Festival [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has declined month - on - month. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56].