Report Title - Brazil's output exceeds the same period last year, raw sugar breaks through support and falls [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The data on sugar cane crushing volume and sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil in September are bearish but in line with expectations. Entering the 2025/26 new crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to start crushing production after November, with expectations of increased production in India, Thailand, and China. Coupled with the historically high production in the central-southern region of Brazil, the overall outlook remains bearish, and it is recommended to continue to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: This week, the price of raw sugar in the outer market declined. As of Friday, the closing price of the ICE raw sugar March contract was 15.53 cents per pound, down 0.57 cents per pound from the previous week, a decrease of 3.54%. The spread between the raw sugar 3 - 5 months fluctuated, reported at 0.5 cents per pound, up 0.02 cents per pound from the previous week. The spread between the London white sugar 3 - 5 months strengthened, reported at $2.1 per ton, up $2 per ton from the previous week. The raw - white spread of the March contract fluctuated, reported at $94 per ton, up $1 per ton from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou sugar declined. As of Friday, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5412 yuan per ton, down 84 yuan per ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.53%. The spot price in Guangxi was reported at 5720 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 312 yuan per ton, up 48 yuan per ton from the previous week. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated, reported at 35 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan per ton from the previous week. The profit from spot imports outside the quota increased, reported at 552 yuan per ton, up 28 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - Industry News: Data released by the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) showed that in the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.858 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; sugar production was 3.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%; the sugarcane - to - sugar ratio was 51.17%, a year - on - year increase of 3.44 percentage points. As of the second half of September, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 490.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.99%; the cumulative sugar production was 33.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%; the cumulative sugarcane - to - sugar ratio was 52.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.84 percentage points. Data released by the Brazilian shipping agency Williams showed that as of the week of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, compared with 83 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.7272 million tons, an increase of 3.3% from 3.6081 million tons in the previous week [9]. - Viewpoint and Strategy: The data on sugar cane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in September are bearish but in line with expectations. Entering the 2025/26 new crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers will gradually start crushing production after November. Currently, major northern hemisphere producers such as India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. Coupled with the historically high production in the central - southern region of Brazil, the overall outlook remains bearish, and it is recommended to continue to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis weakened slightly, the monthly spread was weak, the production - sales area spread fluctuated, the raw - white spread changed little, the advantage of raw sugar production expanded slightly, and the outer - market price declined. The overall outlook remains bearish, and it is recommended to continue to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: The recommended strategy is to short on rallies for a single - side trade, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended period within 3 months, the core driving logic being high import supply pressure and expected increased production in the new crushing season, and a recommended rating of level 3, first proposed on August 16, 2025 [11]. 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including those for spot prices and basis, spreads between different spots, internal - external spreads, raw - white spreads, raw sugar spot premiums and discounts, and sugar - alcohol price ratios, to show the historical trends of various spreads [17][20][25]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - National Output: The report shows the monthly and cumulative sugar production in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [41]. - Sugar Imports: It presents the monthly and annual cumulative sugar imports, as well as the monthly and annual cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder in China from 20/21 to 24/25 through charts [44]. - National Sales: The monthly sugar sales volume and cumulative sales progress in China from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown through charts [49]. - National Industrial Inventory: The monthly industrial inventory in China from 2021 to 2025 and the inventory in Guangxi's three - party warehouses are presented through charts [52]. 4. International Market Situation - Production in Central - Southern Brazil: The report shows the bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production, cumulative sugarcane - to - sugar ratio, and cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil from 21/22 to 25/26 through charts [57]. - India's Output: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in India from 20/21 to 24/25 are presented through charts [62]. - Thailand's Output: The bi - weekly and cumulative sugar production in Thailand from 20/21 to 24/25 are shown through charts [65]. - Brazil's Shipment Volume: The sugar inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports are presented through charts [68].
白糖周报：巴西产量超去年同期，原糖破位下跌-20251018
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-18 13:10