铁矿石周报：钢厂利润下滑，原料价格承压-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The terminal demand is weak, and macro - level disturbances persist. Iron ore prices are under pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [11][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The latest global iron ore shipment volume was 32.075 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 715,000 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.31 million tons, a decrease of 949,000 tons. Australian shipments decreased by 636,000 tons to 19.163 million tons, of which those to China dropped by 767,000 tons to 15.845 million tons. Brazilian shipments decreased by 313,000 tons to 8.147 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 31.441 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.683 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 30.458 million tons, an increase of 4.371 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 national ports was 149.6187 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2079 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2932 million tons, a decrease of 1.222 million tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.64%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.36%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 72%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points. The scrap steel price in Tangshan was 2,205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Zhangjiagang, it was 2,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week; the PB powder import profit was - 22.84 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - Port Inventory: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 142.7827 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.5377 million tons. The pellet inventory was 261,790 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.00323 million tons, a decrease of 46,480 tons. The lump ore inventory was 1.78405 million tons, an increase of 53,750 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 58.6973 million tons, an increase of 893,000 tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 56.84 million tons, an increase of 1.4747 million tons [35][38][41]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 89.8273 million tons, a decrease of 634,600 tons from the previous week [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Overseas Shipments: The latest volume of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.257 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 665,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 8.125 million tons, a decrease of 126,000 tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.054 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 807,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 5.013 million tons, an increase of 602,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 6.007 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.429 million tons, a decrease of 223,000 tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival Volume and Domestic Supply: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 30.458 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.371 million tons. In August, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 16.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 622,700 tons. The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 60.66%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 473,700 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons [59][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Production Indicators: The domestic daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [70]. - Consumption Indicators: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1572 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.128 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9735 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 179,000 tons [73]. 3.6 Basis As of October 17, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 63.71 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.63% [78].