Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The inventory accumulation trend of alumina continues, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is hard to change in the short term. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run stronger, and the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, so the follow - up production cut expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - Futures Price: As of 3 p.m. on October 17, the alumina index fell 1.82% to 2809 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 23,000 lots to 458,000 lots. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US negotiations and the high - start and high - inventory pattern of alumina, the futures price fluctuated downward. The Shandong spot price was 2815 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 29 yuan/ton [11][24]. - Spot Price: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 35 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [11][21]. - Inventory: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 63,000 tons to 4.639 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the in - plant inventory of alumina plants, the in - transit inventory, and the port inventory increased by 11,000 tons, 0 tons, 23,000 tons, and 29,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of SHFE alumina increased by 45,200 tons to 221,300 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from last week [11][70][73]. - Comprehensive Analysis: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is hard to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run stronger, and the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, so the follow - up production cut expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12][13]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - Spot Price: The spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline this week, with different degrees of decline in different regions. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [21]. - Futures Price and Basis: The alumina index fell this week, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The Shandong spot price had a premium over the 11 - contract, and the spread between the first and third contracts was negative [24]. - Bauxite Price: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and due to profit contraction, alumina enterprises' willingness to lower prices increased. With the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline [27]. 3. Supply Side - Bauxite Production: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental policies, domestic bauxite production decreased [31]. - Bauxite Import: In August 2025, bauxite imports were 18.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. The cumulative imports in the first eight months were 141.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38%. From different importing countries, imports from Guinea and Australia had different changes [33][35][37]. - Bauxite Inventory: In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons, with a total inventory of 52.27 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. In key regions, the inventory in Shanxi and Henan decreased [40]. - Alumina Production: In September 2025, alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. The operating capacity in September was 97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.12% and a month - on - month increase of 2.54% [42][45]. - Alumina Plant Profit: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina plants was under pressure. Different regions had different profit situations, with some regions approaching or in a loss state [48]. - Alumina Import and Export: In August 2025, alumina had a net export of 86,000 tons. The import window opened recently, and it is expected that the import volume in September and October will gradually increase, which may further intensify the domestic supply - surplus situation. As of October 17, the Australian FOB price decreased, and the import window was closed [50][52]. - Overseas Alumina Production: In September 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06% [54]. 4. Demand Side - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Operation: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.35% to 97.47% [62]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the situation of supply and demand, import and export, and related data in different months from January to December 2025. The supply and demand situation varies in different months, and there are differences in net exports [65]. 6. Inventory The total social inventory of alumina increased this week, and the warehouse receipts of SHFE and the delivery warehouse inventory also increased. The continuous inventory accumulation shows that the supply in the market is relatively abundant [70][73].
氧化铝周报：累库趋势持续，期价震荡偏弱-20251018
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-18 13:11