锡周报：供给延续偏紧，关注缅甸复产进展-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, tin prices declined and adjusted. In terms of supply, the seasonal maintenance work of large - scale smelters in Yunnan was basically completed, and the smelter operating rate increased to some extent, but the overall operating level was still at a historical low. The core issue was the continuous shortage of tin ore raw material supply. Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar, had been approved, affected by the rainy season and the slow actual resumption of production, the tin ore export volume was still far below the normal level and could not effectively make up for the supply gap. In terms of demand, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers provided support for tin prices, but currently, their scale was not sufficient to fully offset the weak consumption in traditional fields. The spot market trading was light, and downstream enterprises had limited acceptance of prices above 280,000 yuan/ton, mostly choosing to make small - quantity purchases for rigid needs, and the overall market trading atmosphere was not strong. In terms of inventory, the total social inventory of tin ingots in major regions across the country this week was 7,925 tons, an increase of 141 tons from last week. In summary, the short - term tin supply remained tight, and tin prices were expected to remain stable or rebound slightly [12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar, had been approved recently, the resumption of production was slow, and it was expected that the tin ore supply would not be significantly restored until the fourth quarter. In August 2025, China's imported physical volume of tin concentrate reached 10,267 tons, the same as the previous month. The volume of imported tin concentrate from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Russia, and Bolivia had declined, but the overall volume was at a normal level, only affected by shipping factors such as the shipping schedule. The volume of imported tin ore from Myanmar had increased, and with the approval of the mining license, there were signs of short - term supply improvement. The volume of imported tin ore from other regions and countries remained at the previous level [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of production of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, was slow and difficult to increase production before November. The shortage of raw materials for smelting enterprises in Yunnan still existed. Coupled with the maintenance of a large - scale smelting enterprise in September, the operating rate in Yunnan dropped significantly this week. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap and insufficient supply of crude tin, the refined tin output continued to be at a low level. According to third - party data, it was expected that the domestic refined tin output in September would decrease by 29.89% month - on - month [12]. - Demand side: The new energy vehicle and AI server sectors downstream continued to be booming, but the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors, which accounted for the majority of demand, remained sluggish. According to the latest production scheduling report of three major white goods released by Industry Online, the total production scheduling volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September 2025 was 27.07 million units, a 7.2% decrease compared with the actual production volume in the same period last year. In the short term, with the arrival of the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", downstream consumption improved marginally. In August, the operating rate of tin solder of domestic sample enterprises rebounded to 73.22%, showing a significant improvement compared with July [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content provided, only some charts are presented, including the basis of Shanghai tin main - continuous contract and the LME tin premium/discount (0 - 3) [19][20]. 3.3. Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore was generally tight, and the processing fees remained at a low level [27]. - Some charts are presented, including China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [24][26]. 3.4. Supply Side - Some charts are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [31][33][36][39]. 3.5. Demand Side - China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [45]. - Some charts are presented, including domestic computer and smartphone production, production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs, China's photovoltaic cell production and photovoltaic installation cumulative volume, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic tin apparent consumption [44][47][49][51][53][55][58]. - Tin consumption in the tinplate field continued to decline because aluminum cans had almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. PVC stabilizers were the major consumer of tin compounds, and PVC production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year [56]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - Some charts are presented, including China's social inventory and LME inventory [62].