不锈钢周报：现货价格下调，成本支撑减弱-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The demand recovery after the holiday was lower than expected, coupled with the weakening of spot prices and a bearish market sentiment. It is expected that stainless steel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Key Points Summary: On October 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 940 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,630 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17%. In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in September was 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77%. From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98%. In August, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator/household freezer/washing machine/air conditioner were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in August was 19.3%. The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,229 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,900/655,200/203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series increased by 1.02% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 63,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.69%, and the unloading volume was 66,700 tons. The spot price of chrome ore continued to consolidate weakly, and the transaction price of ferrochrome loosened; at the same time, the mainstream prices of domestic and Indonesian nickel iron also showed a weak downward trend, weakening the cost support for stainless steel [11]. - Trading Strategy Recommendation: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Price Data: On October 17, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 13,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 940 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,630 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.17% [17]. - Market Quotation and Position Data: The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about 20 yuan (- 1) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about 170 yuan (+ 59) over the main contract. The trading position on the disk was 269,578 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75% [20]. - Monthly Spread Data: The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 80 (- 55), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 145 (- 45) [23]. 3.3. Supply Side - Domestic Production Data: In October, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to September was 6.48%. The estimated output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in September was 1.4834 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled in October was 730,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.77% [11][27][30]. - Indonesian Production and Import Data: It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%; in August, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.40% [33]. - Export Data: In August, the net export volume of stainless steel was 330,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%; from January to August, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [36]. 3.4. Demand Side - Real Estate Data: From January to August 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 573.0392 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.70%; in August, the sales area of commercial housing was 57.4415 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.98% [11][40]. - Home Appliance and Fuel Processing Industry Data: In August, the year - on - year changes of refrigerator/household freezer/washing machine/air conditioner were - 1/2.5/12.3/ - 1.6% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase of the fuel processing industry in August was 19.3% [11][43]. - Elevator and Automobile Data: In August, the output of elevators, escalators and lifts was 119,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03%; in August, the automobile sales volume was 2.8566 million units, a month - on - month increase of 10.15% and a year - on - year increase of 16.44% [46]. 3.5. Inventory - Total and Futures Inventory: The total social inventory of stainless steel last week was 1.0412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%; the inventory of futures warrants last week was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,229 tons [50]. - Inventory by Series and Shipping Data: The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 182,900/655,200/203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series increased by 1.02% week - on - week; the floating volume of stainless steel last week was 63,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.69%, and the unloading volume was 66,700 tons [53]. 3.6. Cost Side - Nickel Ore Data: In August, the import volume of nickel ore was 6.3467 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.92% and a year - on - year increase of 29.87%; currently, the quotation of Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 15.2884 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.86% [57]. - Nickel Iron Data: The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong last week was 960 yuan/nickel, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently at a loss of 84 yuan/nickel [60]. - Chrome Ore and Ferrochrome Data: The quotation of chrome ore last week was 56.25 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.25 yuan/dry ton; the quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,500 yuan/50 base tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/50 base tons. In September, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome was 812,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [63]. - Production Profit Data: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 6,741 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 5.39% [66].