碳酸锂周报：仓单持续去化，价格区间上移-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The downstream lithium battery industry is in the peak production season of the year, resulting in a temporary supply - demand imbalance with supply less than demand for domestic lithium carbonate. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, and the available spot in the market is tight after the holiday. This week, the exchange warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and lithium prices have moved up, with a short - term possibility of fluctuating in a relatively high range. If strong consumption and the macro - environment resonate, there is potential to break through the upper price limit. Meanwhile, Zangge Lithium Industry has officially obtained the mining license and resumed production, alleviating concerns about domestic resource supply. It is recommended to monitor the fulfillment of supply recovery expectations [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot and Futures Market: On October 17, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 75,535 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.46%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,750 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of the LC2601 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 75,780 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.95% [12]. - Supply: On October 16, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous week. The weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate continued to reach new highs. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month and a 51.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first nine months increased by 41.7% year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 11,100 tons were exported to China, a 14% month - on - month decrease. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, an 8.5% year - on - year decrease, and 120,900 tons were exported to China, a 17% year - on - year decrease. The reduction in South American exports from September to October alleviated the domestic import pressure [12]. - Demand: In September 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were approximately 2.1 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.6% from January to September. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 49.7% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35.2% and 34.9%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 46.1% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [12]. - Inventory: On October 16, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 132,658 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons (1.6%) from the previous week. After the holiday, the warehouse receipts continued to decrease. On October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 30,686 tons, a 28.1% decrease from the previous week [12]. - Cost: On October 17, the quotation of SMM's Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 830 - 870 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.72%. The supply pressure of hard - rock mines has recently begun to ease, and the lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining companies will be released. It is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will increase significantly [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The average price of the spot index of Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate increased by 3.46% this week, and the closing price of the LC2601 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 3.95% [12]. - The average discount of the exchange's standard electric carbon trading market was at par. The net short position of the main contract of the lithium carbonate was approximately 121,000 lots [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 270 yuan [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - Domestic Production: On October 16, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous week. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month, a 51.7% increase year - on - year, and a 41.7% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year [32]. - Production by Source: In September, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 55,950 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous month and a 98.8% increase year - on - year, with a 74.7% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 11,580 tons, a 15.5% decrease from the previous month, with a 16.0% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 9.5% to 11,960 tons, with a 9.1% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 7,770 tons, a 6.6% increase from the previous month, with a 22.9% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year [35][38]. - Imports: In August 2025, China imported 21,845 tons of lithium carbonate, a 57.8% increase from the previous month and a 23.5% increase year - on - year. Among them, 15,608 tons were imported from Chile and 4,253 tons from Argentina. From January to July, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 153,000 tons, a 3.5% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 11,100 tons were exported to China, a 14% month - on - month decrease. The reduction in South American exports alleviated the domestic import pressure from September to October [41]. 3.4 Demand Side - Battery - Related Demand: The battery sector dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited and weak growth [45]. - New Energy Vehicle Sales: In September 2025, global new energy vehicle sales were approximately 2.1 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.6% from January to September. In September, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35.2% and 34.9%. From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 2.324 million, a 26.7% increase year - on - year, and in the United States were 1.063 million, an 8.1% increase year - on - year [12][48][51]. - Battery Production: In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% increase from the previous month and a 35.4% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production of power and other batteries was 1,121.9 GWh, a 51.4% increase year - on - year [54]. - Material Production: From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [57]. 3.5 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: On October 16, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was 132,658 tons, a 1.6% decrease from the previous week. On October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 30,686 tons, a 28.1% decrease from the previous week [64]. - Other Inventory Indicators: The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a multi - year low due to export rush [67]. 3.6 Cost Side - Lithium Concentrate Price: On October 17, the quotation of SMM's Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 830 - 870 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.72% [12]. - Lithium Concentrate Imports: In August, domestic lithium concentrate imports were 471,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease year - on - year and an 18.3% decrease from the previous month. From January to August, domestic lithium concentrate imports were 3.85 million tons, the same as the previous year. In August, lithium concentrate imports from Australia decreased by 50% month - on - month, while those from Africa increased by 82.2% month - on - month. From January to August, lithium concentrate imports from Australia increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and those from Africa decreased by 8.8% year - on - year. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has recently begun to ease, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will increase significantly [77].