甲醇周报：进口扰动，价格冲高回落-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the unloading of imported ships, the market's concerns about supply intensified, but the situation later eased. The futures price showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with the monthly spread continuing to rise and the basis strengthening rapidly. The current spot market still has a high - inventory pattern, and the price difference between ports and inland areas has slightly strengthened [11]. - The domestic operating rate has declined from a high level, coal prices have strengthened leading to higher costs, and short - term imports have been affected with lower arrivals. The port olefin operating rate has remained flat, while the overall domestic olefin operating rate is at a high level. Traditional demand has weakened overall, with the operating rates of dimethyl ether and formaldehyde rising and the rest falling [11]. - The basis has quickly recovered from a low level to near 0, and the 1 - 5 spread has continued to rise due to near - term import impacts. Coal - to - methanol profits are still relatively high, but downstream profits are generally at a medium - to - low level, and methanol valuation is moderately high [11]. - Port inventories have decreased due to lower import arrivals, while enterprise inventories have increased slightly but are at a low level compared to the same period last year. The market logic is that short - term import disruptions have made port prices stronger than inland prices, leading to an increase in the basis and monthly spread, and an absolute price that first rose and then fell [11]. - Overall, the demand during the peak season has fallen short of expectations, the domestic inventory is high, and the pattern of weak reality remains unchanged. Short - term port pressure has been relieved due to the delayed unloading of imported goods. The potential upward driver for future prices lies in the expected improvement brought by winter gas restrictions. Currently, the price has basically reflected the weak - reality pattern. In the future, attention should be focused on supply - side disruptions, and opportunities for long positions and 1 - 5 positive spreads should be considered on dips [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Summary: The futures price showed a pattern of rising first and then falling due to import impacts. The domestic operating rate was 87.42%, declining from a high level. Coal prices strengthened, and short - term imports were affected with lower arrivals. The port olefin operating rate was 88.08%, remaining flat. Traditional demand weakened overall. The basis recovered to near 0, and the 1 - 5 spread rose. Coal - to - methanol profits were still high, but downstream profits were at a medium - to - low level. Port inventories decreased by 5.18 tons to 149.14 tons, and enterprise inventories increased by 2.05 tons to 35.99 tons [11]. - Market Logic: Short - term import disruptions made port prices stronger, leading to an increase in the basis and monthly spread, and an absolute price that first rose and then fell. Import unloading was delayed, leading to lower arrivals and a reduction in port inventories. Domestic supply decreased slightly, and coal prices continued to rebound, causing a decline in coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remained weak [11]. - Strategy: Consider long positions and 1 - 5 positive spreads on dips [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Basis and Spread: Near - term import disruptions have strengthened the 1 - 5 spread, and the basis has recovered to near 0 [20]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: There has been an increase in open interest and a decline in price [23]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: Coal - to - methanol profits are good [41]. - Port Inventory: Port inventories are at a historical high [42]. - Regional Inventory: Factory inventories are at a low level compared to the same period last year [44]. 3.4 Supply Side - Capacity: There are new methanol production capacities in the northwest region, with different raw materials and expected commissioning times [53]. - Upstream Production and Operating Rate: Supply has returned to a high level [55]. - Import Volume: Import volumes and arrivals have been affected, with different import situations from countries such as Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia [62][71]. - International Price Difference: There are fluctuations in import profits and price differences between China and other regions [74]. - Domestic Freight: There are data on domestic methanol freight [82]. 3.5 Demand Side - Demand Projection: There are consumption and inventory data for methanol [86]. - Methanol - to - Olefins: There are data on olefin operating rates, profits of related enterprises, and relevant price differences [88][92][99]. - PP Production Profits by Different Processes: There are data on production profits of PP by oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, and externally - sourced propylene - based processes [96]. - MTO - Related Price Differences: There are data on price differences such as PP - 3MA and LL - 3MA [99]. - Formaldehyde and Dimethyl Ether Operating Rates and Profits: There are data on the operating rates and profits of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether [111]. - Downstream Inventory: There are data on downstream operating rates, profits, and inventories [114]. - Related Product Ratios: There are data on ratios between methanol and other products such as urea, INE crude oil, and动力煤 [117]. 3.6 Options - Related - Methanol Options: There are data on option trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility [122][124]. 3.7 Industry Structure Chart - There are charts showing the methanol industry chain and research framework analysis [127][129].