生猪周报：反弹抛空-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of the pig market is characterized by an oversupply. Although the price of fat pigs is higher than that of standard pigs, the secondary fattening is unlikely to gain momentum due to the pessimistic market expectations. As a result, the rebound space for near - term spot prices is limited. The near - month futures contracts will mainly consume the premium, and the far - month contracts will continue to be devalued. The overall strategy is to sell on rebounds [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Affected by factors such as reluctance to sell at low prices, increased consumption after cooling, and more secondary fattening, domestic pig prices rebounded slightly from the low level last week. However, the cautious market limited the rebound space. With abundant supply, the average weight increased after slaughter, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs continued to rise seasonally. In terms of regional prices, the average price in Henan rose by 0.14 yuan to 11.4 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan fell by 0.06 yuan to 10.9 yuan/kg, and that in Guangdong fell by 0.3 yuan to 11.52 yuan/kg. The theoretical and planned出栏量 remains large, and the support from secondary fattening may be short - term. In October, there is no obvious consumption theme, and the short - term oversupply may continue. The spot market will generally maintain a weak oscillation, with phased support from reduced supply at the end of the month and secondary fattening [11][22]. - Supply Side: In August, the official sow inventory was 40.36 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 60,000 heads (0.1%), still 3.5% more than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weak fundamental situation this year. However, there is a strong expectation of forced production capacity reduction from the policy side, which may improve the supply situation next year. The implementation of policy - driven production capacity reduction in the coming months needs attention. Data shows that the sow inventory decreased by 0.33% in September according to Steel Union and 0.84% according to Yongyi, indicating a slow pace of production capacity reduction. From the perspective of piglet data, there is a significant increase in basic supply from now to March next year. However, the continuous weight reduction of group farms from June to August led to some pre - emptive supply, which may partially offset the current supply pressure. Near - term data shows that the slaughter volume has remained high after the National Day, the frozen meat inventory has continued to rise, and the average trading weight of live pigs is larger than the same period last year and has increased month - on - month, indicating a short - term oversupply situation [11]. - Demand Side: There may be marginal improvement in demand due to the start of school in early September, cooling in the middle and late September, and stockpiling for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. However, after the National Day, demand will enter a downturn again until it gradually improves with the arrival of cold weather and the Spring Festival [11][59]. - Trading Strategy: - Unilateral: Short the 11 - 03 contracts on rallies, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 0.5 - 1 months. The core driving factors are supply, weight, and consumer demand [13]. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 contracts, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 2 months. The driving factors are policies, weight, basic supply, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Spot Price Trend: The domestic pig price rebounded slightly last week but was limited by the cautious market. The average weight increased after slaughter, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs rose seasonally. The theoretical and planned出栏量 is large, and the short - term oversupply may continue. The spot market will maintain a weak oscillation [22]. - Basis and Spread Trends: The spot price rebounded slightly, but the futures market had a weak expectation. The basis converged, and the month - spread still favored reverse arbitrage [25]. - Prices of Piglets and Sows: Relevant price trend charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. 3.3. Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes: In August, the official sow inventory was 40.36 million heads, slightly down month - on - month, but still higher than the normal level. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven production capacity reduction, but the current pace of production capacity reduction is slow [33]. - Inventory and Slaughter: From the piglet data, there is an increase in basic supply from now to March next year. The continuous weight reduction of group farms from June to August led to pre - emptive supply, which may offset some supply pressure. The short - term market is in an oversupply situation [43][50]. - Sow Culling and Sales: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. - Theoretical Slaughter Volume: The basic supply from now to March next year increases, but the pre - emptive supply from group farms may offset some pressure [43]. - Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter: The low proportion of small pigs in slaughter indicates little impact from diseases, and the low proportion of large pigs indicates a limited number of fat pigs [46]. - Trading and Post - slaughter Average Weight: After the National Day, the slaughter volume remained high, the frozen meat inventory continued to rise, and the average trading weight of live pigs was larger than the same period last year and increased month - on - month, indicating a short - term oversupply [50]. - Import and Pig Feed Month - on - month: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. - Secondary Fattening and Pen Utilization: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. 3.4. Demand Side - Slaughter Volume: There may be marginal improvement in demand before the National Day, but it will enter a downturn after the National Day and gradually improve with the arrival of cold weather and the Spring Festival [59]. - Slaughter Operating Rate and Gross Margin: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. - Price Difference and Price - Volume Relationship: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. - Fresh - Frozen Price Difference and Fresh Sales Rate: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. 3.5. Cost and Profit - Cost and Breeding Profit: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously decreasing. However, the pig price is the weakest in the same period in recent years, and there has been an overall loss this year despite the low cost [70]. 3.6. Inventory Side - Cost and Breeding Profit: The frozen meat inventory is in a state of slow recovery and passive inventory accumulation [75].