聚酯周报：石脑油偏弱，聚酯原料估值被动走扩-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX, last week's PXN expanded passively due to the pressure on the naphtha spread. PX followed the decline of crude oil. With high PX load, short - term PTA maintenance, and new PTA device commissioning expectations, PX inventory is difficult to deplete. Currently, PXN is at a neutral level and mainly follows crude oil fluctuations. Short - term observation is recommended [11]. - For PTA, last week's PTA processing fee was under pressure due to commissioning expectations, and it mainly followed the passive decline of crude oil. In the future, supply maintenance will decrease, and inventory will gradually accumulate. The processing fee is difficult to expand. The demand side of polyester and chemical fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. Short - term observation is recommended [12]. - For MEG, the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, the domestic supply is high, the import volume has rebounded, and the port has started to accumulate inventory. In the fourth quarter, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected continuous high domestic load, combined with the gradual commissioning of new devices, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The current valuation is still relatively high, and there is pressure to continuously compress the valuation in a weak pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX: The price decreased last week. The supply side saw a decline in load in China and Asia, with some device maintenance. The demand side had a slight increase in PTA load. Inventory is expected to slightly decrease in October. PXN expanded passively, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [11]. - PTA: The price decreased last week. The supply side had a slight increase in load, and maintenance in October decreased slightly. The demand side had a slight decline in polyester load, and the terminal showed signs of weakness. Inventory is expected to slightly accumulate. The processing fee was under pressure, and short - term observation is recommended [12]. - MEG: The price decreased last week. The supply side had an increase in load, and maintenance devices were few. The demand side had a slight decline in polyester load. Inventory is expected to gradually accumulate in the medium - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - PX: The basis and spread were weakly volatile. The position increased, and the trading volume was neutral [32][35]. - PTA: The basis was at a low level, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at low levels [44][47]. - MEG: The basis was stable, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at low levels [57][63]. 3.3 p - Xylene Fundamental - Capacity: There will be new capacity commissioning in 2025 [77]. - Supply: The import volume increased in August, and the inventory was stable in August. PXN expanded passively, and the naphtha spread declined [83][91][95]. - Aromatic Blending Oil: The gasoline performance weakened, the US - South Korea aromatic spread changed, and the blending oil relative value and South Korea's aromatic inventory also changed [102][111][113]. 3.4 PTA Fundamental - Capacity: There will be new capacity commissioning in 2024 - 2025 [135]. - Supply: The export volume decreased in August, and the inventory remained at a low level. The processing fee was weak [140][143][146]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Fundamental - Capacity: There will be new capacity commissioning in 2024 - 2025 [150]. - Supply: The start - up was high, and the load of syngas - based devices was at a historical high. The import volume was slightly flat in August, and the port inventory increased slightly this week [153][155][161]. - Cost: Coal prices declined, and ethylene prices fell [171]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - Polyester: New filament devices were commissioned. The basis of staple fiber strengthened, and the basis of bottle chips fluctuated. The start - up rate remained high, the inventory of filament was neutral, the profit of filament improved, and the export situation varied [187][191][194]. - Terminal: The start - up was still low. The orders and inventory of textile enterprises were stable, and the raw material inventory decreased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing recovered, but exports were weak. The US clothing inventory was below the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally [214][221][225].