热卷周报：四中全会临近，钢价震荡中寻底-20251018

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, but the prices of finished steel products fluctuated downward. The demand for steel is currently weak, and although Trump's remarks caused short - term disturbances to commodity prices, the long - term trend of steel prices has not changed fundamentally in the context of a gradually loosening macro - environment. In the short term, the weak demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the intensity and direction of policies issued around the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [9][10]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to make an overall plan for the economic development in the next five years, which is of great guiding significance for the macro - economic trend. Other factors such as the meeting's stance and the progress of Sino - US negotiations also need to be focused on [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cost End - The profit of hot - rolled blast furnaces was - 46 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of hot - rolled coils shrank rapidly. The spot price was about 136 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a neutral - to - low valuation [7]. 3.2 Supply End - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 4.4% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.7%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, remaining above 2.4 million tons during the peak season. The profit of blast furnaces for producing rebar in East China remained around - 51 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit declined significantly. The loss of electric - arc furnace plants expanded, with the off - peak electricity profit at - 60 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Demand End - This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 205,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.1% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. The slow recovery of demand led to an insignificant inventory reduction effect. The growth rate of export demand decreased significantly, which may further drag down the demand for sheet metal [8]. 3.4 Inventory - This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.1919 million tons, rising for five consecutive weeks and reaching the highest level in the past five years [9]. 3.5 Transaction Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with no specific profit - loss ratio, recommended cycle, core driving logic, recommended grade, or first - proposed time provided [11].