蛋白粕周报：利好较少，偏弱运行-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply and demand pattern shows no obvious positive factors. The new - season soybean planting in Brazil is progressing normally, and the estimated planting area is increasing. The domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic double - meal market is under real - time supply pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the direction of selling on rebounds. In the short term, there are uncertainties in South American planting and weather, and the bean - meal destocking season provides some support. It is expected that the bean - meal market will fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Soybeans: This week, US soybeans fluctuated weakly. The global soybean supply - demand pattern shows no obvious positive factors. Brazil's new - season soybean planting is progressing normally, and institutional estimates suggest an increase in the planting area. Brazil's premium quotes fluctuated this week, and the soybean arrival cost remained stable. The valuation of US soybeans is currently slightly low, and there is some room for the Brazilian premium to decline. Since there is no significant decline in the global soybean supply, the domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. Whether to import US soybeans is yet to be determined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, the Brazilian quotes will remain strong, providing some support for the bean - meal market. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the bean - meal market may first trade the short - term supply pressure, causing the price to decline. Then, after the game between US soybeans and the Brazilian premium ends, the import cost will stabilize, and the bean - meal market will trade based on the cost [9]. - Domestic Double - Meal: This week, the domestic bean - meal spot market weakened, the basis increased, the futures market weakened, and the oil - mill's futures crushing profit declined. Domestic trading volume was average, and the pick - up volume rebounded to a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.93 days, slightly higher than the same period last year, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.41 days. As of October 14, institutional statistics showed that the purchased volume in August was 9.2 million tons, 8.76 million tons in September, 8.26 million tons in October, and 5.33 million tons in November. The current purchase progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic bean - meal, the domestic bean - based basis has some support [9]. - Trading Strategy: The unilateral strategy is that the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The core driving logic is that the domestic supply is under real - time pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the direction of selling on rebounds. In the short term, there are uncertainties in South American planting and weather, and the bean - meal destocking season provides some support [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price: The report presents the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong, from 2021 to 2025 [17][18]. - Basis of the Main Contract: The report shows the historical basis trends of the soybean - meal 01 contract and the rapeseed - meal 01 contract from February to October 2025 [20][21]. - Spread: The report displays the historical spread trends of the soybean - meal 01 - 05, 03 - 05, 11 - 1 spreads, and the soybean - meal 01 - rapeseed - meal 01 spread from 2021 to 2026 [22][23]. - Fund Position: The report shows the historical net - long positions of the management funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal from May 2020 to September 2025, along with the corresponding futures prices [25][26][29]. 3.3. Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: The report presents the historical planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [31][32]. - Weather Conditions: There is a possibility of La Niña occurring from October 2025 to January 2026. The report also shows the weighted precipitation and forecasts in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas until October 31, 2025, as well as the impact and frequency of La Niña on precipitation in North America from July to September and its climate impact on South America [34][35][36]. - US Soybean Export Progress: The report shows the historical trends of the total export contracts signed by the US soybeans in the current market year to China, the sales completion rate of the current year, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipment volume to China from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [49][50]. - China's Oilseed Imports: The report presents the historical monthly import volume and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 to 2025 [52][53]. - China's Oil - Mill Crushing Situation: The report shows the historical soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [54][55]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: The report presents the historical port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2021 to 2025 [58][59]. - Protein - Meal Inventory: The report shows the historical inventory and forecasts of soybean meal in major coastal oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills from 2021 to 2025 [61][62]. - Protein - Meal Crushing Profit: The report presents the historical crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2021 to 2025 [63][64]. 3.5. Demand Side - Consumption and Transaction: The report shows the historical cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2021/22 to 2025/26 [66]. - Breeding Profit: The report presents the historical per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the per - feather profit of white - feather broiler breeding from 2021 to 2025 [67][68].