锰硅周报：市场对后续重要会议预期交易暂时不足，关注其中可能存在的预期差-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the current real - world situation for manganese and silicon ferroalloys remains unfavorable, most of this has been factored into prices. Subsequent macro - level factors, such as important meetings, may be more crucial. The market's anticipation trading for future important meetings is currently insufficient, and attention should be paid to potential expectation gaps [15][97]. - For the future of the black sector, there is no pessimism. It is considered that seeking rebound opportunities after price corrections may be more cost - effective. After nearly four years of decline, the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened [15][97]. - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal and lack a major driving force. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. If the black sector strengthens, the manganese ore end may trigger a market for manganese silicon. Otherwise, it will likely follow the black sector's trend [15]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon ferroalloy have no obvious contradictions or drivers and will probably follow the black sector's trend, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [97]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Summary: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5718 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton. The basis was 152 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.61%, at a relatively neutral historical level. Manganese silicon's estimated immediate profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 315 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton), Ningxia at - 394 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and Guangxi at - 700 yuan/ton (down 79 yuan/ton). The estimated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia was 5995 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton), Ningxia at 5994 yuan/ton (down 65 yuan/ton), and Guangxi at 6350 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton). Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 20.88 tons, up 0.46 tons, and the cumulative output compared to the same period last year increased by about 0.07%. The weekly output of rebar was 201.16 tons, down 2.24 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 0.99%. The daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons, still above 240 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.80%. The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 52.39 tons, up 1.12 tons, remaining at a high level in the same period [14]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis was at a relatively neutral level; production profit continued to be in the red; production volume continued to recover; rebar demand was weak, while pig iron remained above 240 tons; visible inventory remained at a high level in the same period; the tender volume increased slightly, while the tender price continued to decline. The manganese silicon futures price oscillated at the bottom of the range last week. The subsequent sentiment of Sino - US trade frictions may ease, and the safety accident in Inner Mongolia is expected to improve the sentiment of the black sector marginally [15]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market As of October 17, 2025, the Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5718 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the basis was 152 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.61%, at a relatively neutral historical level [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Production Profit: As of October 17, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 315 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton), Ningxia at - 394 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and Guangxi at - 700 yuan/ton (down 79 yuan/ton) [24][25]. - Production Cost: As of October 17, 2025, the electricity prices in major production areas remained stable. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5995 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton), Ningxia at 5994 yuan/ton (down 65 yuan/ton), and Guangxi at 6350 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton) [30]. - Manganese Ore Import: In August, the manganese ore import volume was 348.6 tons, up 74.24 tons month - on - month and 87.53 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 2068.88 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 181.7 tons or 9.63% [33]. - Manganese Ore Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 445.7 tons, down 2.1 tons. Among them, the total port inventory of Australian manganese ore was 68.4 tons, up 1.8 tons, and the total high - grade manganese ore port inventory was 115.2 tons, down 6.7 tons [36][39]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Total Output: As of October 17, 2025, Steel Union's weekly manganese silicon output was 20.88 tons, up 0.46 tons, and the cumulative output compared to the same period last year increased by about 0.07%. In September 2025, the output was 89.84 tons, down 1.08 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to September decreased by 12.05 tons or 1.58% year - on - year [44]. - Output in Major Production Areas: In September 2025, Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume was 17,000 tons, up 900 tons month - on - month and 6500 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month [57]. - Consumption: As of October 17, 2025, Steel Union's weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.1 tons, down 0.1 tons week - on - week. The weekly rebar output was 201.16 tons, down 2.24 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 0.99%. The daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons, still above 240 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.80%. In August 2025, the national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 6.66 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1143 tons or 1.69%. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, down 0.87 percentage points [60][63][64]. 3.5 Inventory - Visible Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 52.39 tons, up 1.12 tons, continuing to rise and remaining at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 26.25 tons, up 2 tons [72][75]. - Steel Mill Inventory: In September, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.93 days, up 0.95 days, still at a relatively low level in the same historical period [78]. 3.6 Graphical Trends Last week, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated at the bottom of the range, with a weekly decline of 38 yuan/ton or 0.66%. On the daily - line level, it remained within the 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton oscillation range, running near the lower edge of the range and approaching the right - hand downward trend line. Attention should be paid to the support near 5600 yuan/ton and the direction selection when approaching the right - hand trend line [15][81]. Silicon Ferroalloy Report 3.7 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Summary: The daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons, still above 240 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.80%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 62.09 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.13 tons or 4.80%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative silicon ferroalloy export volume was 27.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.89 tons or 6.52%. The estimated visible inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 13.41 tons, down 0.9 tons, continuing to decline and remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SF601) closed at 5430 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton; the basis was 170 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.04%, at a relatively high historical level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia was - 604 yuan/ton (unchanged), Ningxia was - 430 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton), and Qinghai was - 397 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton). The estimated production cost in major production areas remained basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5784 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton), Ningxia at 5560 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton), and Qinghai at 5547 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton). Steel Union's weekly silicon ferroalloy output was 11.28 tons, down 0.3 tons, and the cumulative output compared to the same period last year increased by about 1.56% [96]. - Fundamental Assessment: The basis was at a relatively high level; production volume decreased slightly; production profit continued to be in the red; pig iron remained above 240 tons, while export and metallic magnesium demand were still average; visible inventory continued to decline, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period; the steel tender volume increased slightly, while the tender price continued to fall. The silicon ferroalloy futures price rebounded after reaching the bottom last week, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton or 0.63%. On the daily - line level, it remained within the 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton oscillation range. Attention should be paid to the support near 5400 yuan/ton and the direction selection when approaching the right - hand downward trend line [97]. 3.8 Spot and Futures Market As of October 17, 2025, the Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the futures main contract (SF601) closed at 5430 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton; the basis was 170 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.04%, at a relatively high historical level [102]. 3.9 Profit and Cost - Production Profit: As of October 17, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia was - 604 yuan/ton (unchanged), Ningxia was - 430 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton), and Qinghai was - 397 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton) [107]. - Production Cost: As of October 17, 2025, the electricity prices in major production areas remained stable. The estimated production cost in major production areas remained basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5784 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton), Ningxia at 5560 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton), and Qinghai at 5547 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton) [113]. 3.10 Supply and Demand - Total Output: As of October 17, 2025, Steel Union's weekly silicon ferroalloy output was 11.28 tons, down 0.3 tons, and the cumulative output compared to the same period last year increased by about 1.56%. In September 2025, the output was 48.82 tons, down 0.51 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to September increased by 5.52 tons or 1.36% year - on - year [118]. - Output in Major Production Areas: In September 2025, Hebei Steel Group's 75B silicon ferroalloy tender volume was 3151 tons, up 316 tons month - on - month and 650 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton month - on - month [124]. - Consumption: As of October 17, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons, still above 240 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.80%. In August 2025, the national crude steel output was 7737 tons, down 233 tons month - on - month and 53 tons year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 6.66 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1143 tons or 1.69%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 62.09 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.13 tons or 4.80%. As of October 17, 2025, the metallic magnesium price in Fugu area was 16,275 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative silicon ferroalloy export volume was 27.1 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.89 tons or 6.52%. The estimated export profit of silicon ferroalloy was 0 yuan/ton, still at a relatively low level in the same period. From January to August 2025, the total overseas crude steel output was 5.57 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 300 tons or 0.54% [127][130][133][134]. 3.11 Inventory - Visible Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 13.41 tons, down 0.9 tons, continuing to decline and remaining at a relatively high level in the same period [141]. - Steel Mill Inventory: In September, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy in steel mills was 15.52 days, up 0.85 days, and the raw material inventory in steel mills continued to rise slightly, still at a relatively low level in the same historical period [144]. 3.12 Graphical Trends Last week, the silicon ferroalloy futures price rebounded after reaching the bottom, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton or 0.63%. On the daily - line level, it remained within the 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton oscillation range. Attention should be paid to the support near 5400 yuan/ton and the direction selection when approaching the right - hand downward trend line [149].