铅周报：铅锭持续去库，消费边际转好-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The lead ore port inventory has increased, the lead concentrate TC has stabilized, and the smelting start - up rate of primary lead has remained high. The raw material inventory of secondary lead has slightly increased, the smelting profit of secondary lead has improved, and the weekly start - up rate of secondary smelters has increased. The start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has recovered, the factory inventory of lead - acid batteries has decreased to 19.7 days, and the dealer inventory of lead - acid batteries has decreased to 39.7 days, reducing the pressure on finished product inventory. The social inventory and factory inventory of lead ingots have continued to decline, and it is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: On Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.19% to 17,083 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 79,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME lead 3S fell 15.5 to 1,972.5 US dollars/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 152,900 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,900 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,850 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory remained flat at 33,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,100 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 252,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 156,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 44.99 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 88.3 US dollars/ton. Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 49.44 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial Data: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 52,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 424,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The imported TC of lead concentrate was - 110 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary start - up rate was 66.64%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. At the secondary end, the lead waste inventory was 76,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. On the demand side, the start - up rate of lead batteries was 74.97% [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - Imports: In August 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 134,800 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.9% and a month - on - month change of 10.4%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 919,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 31.5%. In August 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 185,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.8% and a month - on - month change of 20.0%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,191,100 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.3%. In August 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 154,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.8% and a month - on - month change of 14.8%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,028,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 18.5% [15][17]. - Production: In September 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 151,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of - 3.0%. From January to September, the total lead concentrate output was 1,249,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.5%. In September 2025, China's primary lead output was 327,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.4% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to September, the total output of primary lead ingots was 2,860,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.3% [17][26]. - Inventory and Processing Fees: The lead concentrate port inventory was 52,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 424,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The imported TC of lead concentrate was - 110 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton [11][21][23]. 3.3. Secondary Supply - Raw Materials and Weekly Output: At the secondary end, the lead waste inventory was 76,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In September 2025, China's secondary lead output was 317,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.5% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to September, the total output of secondary lead ingots was 2,888,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.7% [31][33]. - Imports and Total Supply: In August 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 11,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 86.1% and a month - on - month change of - 10.5%. From January to August, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 67,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.2%. In August 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 656,200 tons, a year - on - year change of - 5.4% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 5,172,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand: On the demand side, the start - up rate of lead batteries was 74.97%. In August 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 639,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 5.3% and a month - on - month change of - 1.9%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 5,117,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.6% [40]. - Battery Exports: In August 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 17.8165 million, and the net export weight of batteries was 97,900 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 61,200 tons, a year - on - year change of - 11.3% and a month - on - month change of - 8.2%. From January to August, the total net export of lead in batteries was 494,100 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries increased by - 4.4% year - on - year [43]. - Inventory Days: In September 2025, the finished product inventory of lead batteries in factories decreased from 20.5 days to 19.7 days, and the inventory days of lead batteries for dealers decreased from 42 days to 39.7 days [45]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in the output of electric bicycles directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the rapid development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Inventory: The total domestic lead ingot inventory situation shows that the domestic social inventory remained flat at 33,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 252,000 tons [11][71]. - Supply - Demand Balance: In August 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 16,900 tons, and from January to August, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 55,000 tons. In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 8,000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 53,900 tons [63][66]. 3.6. Price Outlook - Basis and Spread: The domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 44.99 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 88.3 US dollars/ton. The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 49.44 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. - Position Analysis: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead has decreased, the net long position of investment funds in London lead has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has increased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].