尿素周报：弱势未改，企业库存继续走高-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of urea remains weak, with high enterprise inventories suppressing prices. The current low - season situation makes it difficult to digest the existing output, and the weak - reality pattern is unlikely to change in the short term [12]. - Although the absolute price is low, the downward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The overall valuation of urea is low, but there is a lack of effective positive factors. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The supply - demand pattern is weak, enterprise inventories are at a high level year - on - year, and the basis and inter - month spreads are still weak. The weak - reality pattern is difficult to change in the short term [12]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.25%, returning to a seasonal neutral level. The daily output is 182,200 tons, with more short - stop devices, and it is expected to decline in the short term [12]. - Demand: It is the agricultural off - season, and agricultural demand is postponed due to weather. The compound fertilizer industry is in the maintenance season, with the operating rate at a low level year - on - year and the finished - product inventory decreasing from a high level. Overall, both industrial and agricultural demand are at a low level [12]. - Valuation: The 1 - 5 spread is weak, and the basis is at a low level without improvement. The export profit is high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventories are 1.6154 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 171,500 tons, at a high level year - on - year. Port inventories are 446,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 tons, and the enthusiasm for cargo collection at ports has increased after the Indian tender was announced [12]. - Market Logic: The weak - reality pattern in the domestic market remains unchanged. Prices are continuously weak due to high inventories, but the downward trend of the futures price has slowed down at low absolute prices [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Data: The prices of different futures contracts and spot markets in various regions have changed. For example, the 09 contract price is 1,705 yuan, the 01 contract price is 1,602 yuan, and the 05 contract price is 1,672 yuan. The basis and spreads between contracts have also changed [13]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The market is in a state of position - reduction and consolidation [28]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: Enterprise profits are continuously weakening, including fixed - bed profits, water - coal - slurry profits, and gas - head production profits [32]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventories are increasing, and port inventories are also rising. The report also includes inventory change projections [37][39]. 3.4. Supply Side - Production Capacity: There are planned new production capacity projects, and some enterprises have started production in 2024 - 2025 [45]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate has decreased, with more short - stop devices. Gas - head operating rates are at a low level year - on - year, and there are more maintenance projects for coal - based production [47]. - Device Maintenance: Many enterprises are undergoing maintenance, including both planned and unplanned maintenance, which has affected production [49]. 3.5. Demand Side - Consumption Projection: The report includes monthly consumption data and downstream demand proportion analysis [54]. - Nitrogen Source Comparison: The ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources such as synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are presented [59]. - Melamine: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine are analyzed [62]. - Terminal Demand: Terminal demand is affected by factors such as the real estate market and export of related products [70]. - Export: Urea export profits are good, and the export volume is also presented in the report [81]. 3.6. Option - Related - Option Data: The report includes data on option open interest, trading volume, PCR, and volatility, as well as the relationship between option volatility and futures prices [90]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - Industry Chain Diagram: Diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics are provided [104]. - Fertilizer Demand Seasonality: The fertilizer demand seasonality in different regions of China and major countries around the world is summarized [112].