国债周报：债市走向震荡修复-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes and the decline in risk appetite are conducive to the repair of the bond market. However, the uncertainty of tariff progress in the later stage is high. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power [13]. - From the perspective of fundamentals, the September PMI data shows that the manufacturing prosperity has rebounded but is still below the boom - bust line, with both supply and demand ends warming up month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing sector has declined slightly. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the price level has rebounded, but affected by the issuance rhythm of government bonds and the base, the growth rate of social financing has declined marginally [10][13]. - In terms of funds, the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. The current market may generally remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand repair and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair in a volatile manner [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy: The September PMI data shows that the manufacturing prosperity has rebounded but is still below the boom - bust line, with both supply and demand ends warming up month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing sector has declined slightly. The "anti - involution" policy has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production still needs to be observed. In the future, exports may face certain pressure. The Fed has cut interest rates, and the subsequent degree of easing needs to pay attention to the inflation changes caused by tariffs. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The central government has arranged 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments [10][11]. - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturing. This week, there was a net withdrawal of 381.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [13]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10Y treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.04BP; the 30Y treasury bond yield closed at 2.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50BP; the latest 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00BP [13]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a long - position strategy on dips, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [15]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Contract Market Performance: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis spreads of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [18][24][27][30][33][38]. 3.3. Main Economic Data - Domestic Economy - GDP: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, and the economic growth in the first half of the year maintained resilience [47]. - PMI: In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the service industry PMI decreased by 0.4 points from the previous value to 50.1%. The manufacturing and service industries showed differentiation. The sub - items of the manufacturing PMI showed that both supply and demand ends had warmed up [47][48][53]. - Price Index: In September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month data, CPI increased by 0.1%, core CPI remained unchanged, and PPI remained unchanged [56]. - Export: In September 2025, China's import and export data slightly exceeded expectations. Exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 27.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [59]. - Industrial Added Value and Social Consumption: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3.4%, showing a slowdown [62]. - Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate: From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 12.9%. In August, the prices of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new construction area and construction area of houses also showed a downward trend year - on - year [65][68]. - Foreign Economy - US Economy: In the second quarter, the annualized current - price GDP of the US was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In August, the unadjusted CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year. The order amount of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the non - farm employment population increased by 22,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%. In September, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50 [74][77][80]. - EU Economy: In the second quarter, the EU's GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [80]. - Eurozone Economy: In September, the final value of the Eurozone's CPI increased by 2.2% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the service industry PMI was 51.3 [83]. 3.4. Liquidity - In September, the growth rate of M1 was 7.2%, and the growth rate of M2 was 8.4%. The increment of social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan. The main source of social financing was the growth of government bonds. In the sub - items of social financing, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds slowed down, and the financing of the real - sector remained stable. In September, the balance of MLF was 5.85 trillion yuan, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 381.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [88][91][94]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: The report lists the latest yields of domestic and US treasury bonds and their week - on - week changes, as well as the changes in repurchase rates [97]. - Exchange Rates: No specific analysis of exchange rates is provided, only relevant charts are presented [108].