铝周报：外强内弱延续-20251018

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Sino - US trade situation has been volatile. LME aluminum has outperformed SHFE aluminum due to the limited amount of tradable supply. Currently, the tense Sino - US trade situation may ease marginally, and market sentiment is expected to improve. From an industrial perspective, after the domestic price decline, the aluminum ingot inventory has decreased marginally, and the absolute inventory level is low. Coupled with the rising copper price, the aluminum price is strongly supported and may fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be between 20,700 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M contract is expected to be between 2,720 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [12]. - This week, the aluminum price fluctuated weakly, showing a divergence pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets. The main contract of SHFE aluminum fell 0.67% this week, while LME aluminum rose 0.89%. In the domestic futures - spot structure, the contango of SHFE aluminum has widened to 40 yuan/ton, and the East China region has shifted to a premium, indicating a relatively tight local spot supply. Looking ahead, the fundamentals present both support and pressure. The low - level social inventory supports the downside of the aluminum price, but the weak - to - stable start - up rate of the downstream processing industry will limit the upside space of the price. It is expected that next week, the operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract will be between 20,600 - 21,100 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M contract will be between 2,700 - 2,800 US dollars/ton [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply Side: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was approximately 44.06 million tons. The commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects led to a slight increase in the operating capacity. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year - on - year and decreased by 3.2% month - on - month. In October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly. In September, the domestic aluminum - water ratio rebounded by 1.2% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year - on - year and 7.9% month - on - month to approximately 857,000 tons [12]. - Inventory & Spot: According to MYSTELL data, the inventory on Thursday this week was 642,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday; the bonded - area inventory this week was 80,000 tons; the total aluminum bar inventory on Thursday this week was 161,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday; the global LME aluminum inventory was 491,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from last week. The spot of domestic East China aluminum ingots has shifted from a discount to a premium, and the LME market Cash/3M premium is 12.8 US dollars/ton [12]. - Imports and Exports: In September 2025, China exported 521,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots has widened, and the export advantage of aluminum products has increased [12]. - Demand Side: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises this week was 62.5%, remaining stable on the margin and slightly lower than the same period last year. The trading volume in the aluminum spot market has improved as the price declined [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The main contract of SHFE aluminum fell 0.67% this week to 20,910 yuan/ton (as of the Friday afternoon close); LME aluminum rose 0.89% this week to 2,778.5 US dollars/ton [21]. - Term Spread: The contango between the first - and third - month contracts of SHFE aluminum has widened from - 15 to - 40 yuan/ton [25]. - Spot Basis: The East China region has shifted to a premium, the South China region is at par, and the discount in the Central China region has widened [31]. - Regional Premium - Discount Spread: The East China spot has strengthened relatively [37]. - LME Premium - Discount: The LME aluminum Cash/3M premium has widened [41]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit has increased compared to last week and is at a historical high [45]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: According to MYSTELL data, the inventory on Thursday this week was 642,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday. According to SMM statistics, the bonded - area inventory this week was 80,000 tons [50]. - Aluminum Bar Inventory: According to MYSTELL data, the total aluminum bar inventory on Thursday this week was 161,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday [53]. - LME Inventory: The global LME aluminum inventory is 491,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from last week, and is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. In September, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased [58][61]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: The domestic and overseas bauxite prices have remained stable [68]. - Alumina Price: The domestic alumina price has decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the import price has decreased by 4 US dollars/ton [71]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price has remained flat, and the thermal coal price has increased slightly compared to last week [75]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In September, the monthly alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a decrease of 132,000 tons from August and a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [81]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was approximately 44.06 million tons, with a slight month - on - month increase in the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and a slight month - on - month increase in the industry operating rate; the production in September decreased by 3.2% month - on - month; in October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly [84]. - Aluminum - Water Ratio: The aluminum bar processing fee has increased compared to last week. In September, the domestic aluminum - water ratio rebounded by 1.2%, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year - on - year and 7.9% month - on - month to approximately 857,000 tons [87]. - Provincial Electrolytic Aluminum Production: The electrolytic aluminum production in each province decreased in September compared to August, with Shandong's production decreasing by 38,000 tons [92]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: - In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased month - on - month, and the operating rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils rebounded [103]. - In September, the operating rates of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods rebounded month - on - month [106]. - In September, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys has widened by 44 yuan/ton to 329 yuan/ton [109]. - Terminal Demand: The production schedules of the three major white goods released by Industry Online show that in October 2025, the production schedule for household air conditioners is 1.153 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0% with an expanding decline; the production schedule for refrigerators is 863,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8% with a slightly narrowing decline; the production schedule for washing machines is 908,000 units, a slight year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Currently, the real - estate data is also weak, automobile production and sales are acceptable, and the production schedule for photovoltaic modules is expected to rebound slightly [113]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum Imports: In August 2025, China imported 217,000 tons of primary aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 1.714 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots has widened [118]. - Aluminum Ingot Imports: In August, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Australia, etc. Among them, the import volume from Russia accounted for 63%, and the import volume from India accounted for 15% [122]. - Unwrought Aluminum and Aluminum Products Exports: In September 2025, China exported 521,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; from January to September, the cumulative export volume was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [126]. - Recycled Aluminum Imports: In August 2025, the import volume of recycled aluminum was 173,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. From January to August, the import volume was 1.3453 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [126]. - Bauxite Imports: In August 2025, China imported 18.289 million tons of bauxite, with imported ore accounting for 75.70%. From January to August, the cumulative bauxite import volume was 141.49 million tons [130]. - Alumina Exports: In August 2025, China exported 180,500 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 21.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.0%. From January to August, the cumulative alumina export volume was 1.753 million tons [130].