铂族金属周报：价格将进入高位盘整区间-20251018

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of platinum - group metals continued their strong performance, with palladium showing a more obvious catch - up rally. The prices of precious metals were driven up by the US small - bank crisis and Powell's dovish remarks. However, on Friday night, the prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all dropped significantly, ending the short - term accelerated upward trend. It is expected that platinum and palladium prices will enter a high - level consolidation range. But in the medium term, due to macro and spot factors, it is difficult for the prices to decline trend - wise [3][9][10]. - Powell's monetary policy stance was dovish this week, announcing that the Fed's balance - sheet reduction process is about to end. The market has fully priced in 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in the October and December FOMC meetings, and the new Fed chairperson will be confirmed in December. The subsequent macro - environment will continue to be bullish for platinum - group metal prices [10]. - The overseas platinum lease rate has been consistently above 10%, indicating a mid - term structural shortage of overseas spot due to tightened mine supply and increased demand, which cannot be alleviated in the short term. Overall, platinum - group metal prices are expected to oscillate at high levels and are more likely to rise than fall [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - Price Changes: NYMEX platinum's active - contract price rose 0.56% to $1,629.8 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's active - contract price rose 4.23% to $1,516 per ounce [10]. - Technical Analysis: NYMEX platinum's price is expected to oscillate at high levels after reaching the resistance level of $1,770 per ounce, with support at $1,511 per ounce. NYMEX palladium's price is expected to consolidate at high levels after being suppressed at $1,700 per ounce, with support at $1,447 per ounce [12][15]. 3.2 Market Review - Platinum Price: NYMEX platinum's active - contract price rose 0.56% to $1,629.8 per ounce, and the total position as of September 23 was 97,978 lots. As of October 17, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 398.79 yuan per gram [21][25]. - Palladium Price: NYMEX palladium's active - contract price rose 4.23% to $1,516 per ounce, and the total position as of the latest report was 20,282 lots [22]. - Lease Rate: As of October 17, the one - month implied lease rate for platinum rose to 18.93%, and that for palladium was 3.25% [29]. - CFTC Net Positions: As of the September 23 report, NYMEX platinum's managed - fund net long position increased by 3,638 lots to 18,285 lots, and NYMEX palladium's managed - fund net short position was 5,176 lots [32][35]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - Platinum: As of October 17, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 76.28 tons, and CME platinum inventory was 21.19 tons [46][53]. - Palladium: As of October 17, the total holdings of palladium ETFs were 14.84 tons, and CME palladium inventory was 5,819.47 kilograms [49][58]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Platinum Supply: The total platinum output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. China's platinum imports in August were 8.21 tons, showing a rebound from July [64][70]. - Palladium Supply: The total palladium output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024. China's palladium imports in August were 2.06 tons, showing a decline from July [67][73]. - Demand: The report analyzes the production of passenger cars in China, Japan, Germany, and the US, as well as the global supply - demand balance sheets for platinum and palladium [74][84][85]. 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - The report provides data and charts on NYMEX platinum and palladium monthly spreads, as well as the spreads between London spot prices and NYMEX prices [87][104]