贵金属周报：联储货币政策转向，等待回调企稳后的做多机会-20251018

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current Fed's monetary policy is at the beginning of an easing cycle, and the most important factor - the new Fed chairperson has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals. After a short - term price correction and stabilization, it will form a good buying opportunity. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 934 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 10937 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - Weekly Market Review: This week, gold and silver prices were strong. By the close of the Friday daytime session, Shanghai Gold rose 10.90% to 999.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 10.53% to 12249.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 5.76% to 4267.90 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 6.55% to 50.63 US dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 98.56 [11]. - Fed's Policy Shift: Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed will soon end quantitative tightening (QT). The US small - bank loan risk event this week provides a reason for the Fed to end balance - sheet reduction and move towards expansion. The market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the Fed's meeting this month and expects a 93% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in December [11]. - Silver Spot Situation: On October 17, the silver spot lease rate dropped from 25.8% to 15.9%. From October 1 to now, COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 663.3 tons to 15845 tons. Overseas silver spot shortages will continue to support silver prices [11]. 2. Market Review - Price Performance: Gold and silver prices were strong this week. Shanghai Gold rose 10.90%, Shanghai Silver rose 10.53%, COMEX gold rose 5.76%, and COMEX silver rose 6.55% [29]. - Position Changes: Shanghai Gold's total position decreased by 5.49% to 395,900 lots, and COMEX gold's total position as of the latest report period increased by 2.43% to 528,800 lots. Shanghai Silver's total position slightly increased by 0.14% to 837,600 lots, and COMEX silver's total position as of the latest report period increased by 1.75% to 165,800 lots [31][33]. - ETF Holdings: As of October 17, the total gold ETF holdings in the Reuters statistical scope were 2315.5 tons, and the total foreign silver ETF holdings were 28259.31 tons [39]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - US Treasury Yields: Relevant graphs show the spreads between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and short - term Treasury yields [48][49]. - Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations: Graphs display the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse - repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [51][52]. - Fed's Balance Sheet: The table shows the weekly changes in the Fed's balance sheet, including asset and liability sides [54]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - CPI & PCE: In August, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.9%, the seasonally adjusted CPI month - on - month was 0.4%. The un - seasonally adjusted core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and the seasonally adjusted core CPI month - on - month was 0.3% [65]. - Employment: Affected by the US government shutdown, the latest weekly US unemployment data is missing [68]. - PMI & PPI: In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50 [71]. - New Housing Data: In August, the annualized number of new housing sales in the US was 800,000, the annualized value of building permits was 1.33 million, and the annualized value of new housing starts was 1.307 million [74]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - Gold Basis: The graph shows the spread between gold TD and SHFE gold [77]. - Silver Basis: The graph shows the spread between silver TD and SHFE silver [80]. - Domestic - Foreign Spreads: Graphs show the domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver [84][86]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - Silver Inventory: Graphs show the silver inventories of Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [90][93]. - Gold Inventory: Graphs show the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [97].