棉花周报；新棉收购价企稳，但向上空间或有限-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - level Sino - US trade conflict has resurfaced, which is unfavorable for cotton price increases. Fundamentally, the consumption demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season this year is weak, the operating rate of the downstream industrial chain has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new domestic cotton season, resulting in high selling hedging pressure. Overall, the fundamental situation of Zhengzhou cotton is weak, and with the impact of macro - level negative factors, it is expected that the upward space for cotton prices in the short term is relatively limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In the overseas market, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 64.29 cents per pound, up 0.52 cents per pound from the previous week, a rise of 0.82%. The spread between the December and March contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reported at - 1.5 cents per pound, up 0.23 cents per pound from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,335 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous week, a rise of 0.08%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,679 yuan per ton, down 78 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 1,328 yuan per ton, down 96 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, reported at - 55 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - Industry Information: In the overseas market, due to the US government shutdown, USDA data continued to be suspended. In the domestic market, according to market news, on October 16, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.17 yuan per kilogram, up 0.02 yuan per kilogram from the previous week. Machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang started large - scale picking, and the purchase price of machine - picked cotton increased. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of October 17, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, up 0.2% week - on - week, down 7.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and down 10.22 percentage points from the average of the past five years (75.82%) [9]. - Viewpoint and Strategy: As mentioned in the core view, the upward space for short - term cotton prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, spreads between different months of Zhengzhou cotton, and spreads between different regions and different varieties in the international market, such as the US - Brazil spread, etc. These charts show the historical trends of various spreads from 2021 to 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - Cotton Production: The report shows the processing and inspection volume of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts, reflecting the production situation of domestic cotton [38][39]. - Import Volume: Charts show the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton, the import volume of US cotton to China, and the import volume of cotton yarn, reflecting the import situation of the domestic cotton market [40][41][45]. - Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented through charts, showing the operating conditions of the downstream industry [48][49]. - Sales Progress: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown through charts, reflecting the sales situation of domestic cotton [50][51]. - Inventory: The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton, the combined monthly inventory of commercial and industrial cotton, as well as the raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills are presented through charts, reflecting the inventory situation of the domestic cotton market [53][54][55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - US Situation: The report shows the planting area without drought, the excellent - good rate, production, output, planting area, export signing progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of US cotton through various charts, comprehensively reflecting the situation of the US cotton market [59][60][61]. - Brazilian Situation: Charts show the planting area, output, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton, reflecting the situation of the Brazilian cotton market [72][73][75]. - Indian Situation: The planting area, output, consumption, and import - export volume, as well as supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are presented through charts, showing the situation of the Indian cotton market [80][81][83].