Group 1 - The "high-cut low" style switch is currently unfolding, but there are differences in offense and defense. The market has shown that cyclical and value trends cannot lead the overall index higher, and the market continues its adjustment phase since early September. The key catalyst for cyclical trends has not yet arrived, and the trend of technology growth industries remains concentrated. A-shares will ultimately need to wait for technology to lead for effective breakthroughs [1][3][4] - Discussions about style switching in the fourth quarter have increased significantly. The current "high-cut low" market is defensive in nature, with intensified competition among offensive assets (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) within cyclical and value sectors, while defensive assets show absolute returns. The overall profit effect is declining, and technology rebounds show better profit effects [4][5][11] Group 2 - The overseas environment has become more stable. Recent credit risks in U.S. regional banks have created short-term disturbances in risk appetite. However, these risks are still considered isolated events, and the VIX index has peaked and started to decline. A potential turning point in overseas pressures may have passed [8] - The mid-term market judgment remains unchanged: before spring 2026, the catalytic effect of technology industries will significantly exceed that of cyclical industries. Although the long-term cost-effectiveness of technology is currently low, short-term cost-effectiveness issues have been sufficiently digested, allowing for the emergence of a new round of technology trends [8][9] Group 3 - Spring 2026 may represent a structural high point for the A-share market, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the current bull market. The conditions for a comprehensive bull market will become increasingly sufficient over time [11] - In the short term, cyclical products (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) are not performing well, with a preference for defensive and hedging assets (such as banks and food and beverage). The outlook for 2026 is better than for 2025, with opportunities still available in Q4 2025, particularly in areas like overseas computing power, advanced manufacturing represented by new energy, and national defense and military industries [11][12]
申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/10/13-25/10/18)：高切低进行时，但攻守有别
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-18 13:42