2025年9月财政数据点评：如何解读前三季度财政数据?

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.5%, up from +0.3% in the previous period[1] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure remained at +3.1%[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.5%, improving from -1.4% previously[1] September Fiscal Performance - In September, general public budget revenue increased by 2.58% year-on-year, a recovery from the previous month[3] - Central government revenue grew by 3.47% year-on-year, while local government revenue increased by 1.96%[3] - Tax revenue in September rose by 8.66% year-on-year, marking a significant improvement[5] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic consumption tax increased by 3.83% year-on-year, with vehicle purchase tax rising by 8.53%[4] - Corporate income tax saw a year-on-year growth of 19.59%, although it was a decline from the previous month[5] - Personal income tax grew by 16.68% year-on-year, reflecting a strong performance[5] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue in September improved to +5.6% year-on-year from -5.7%[22] - Cumulative progress for government fund budget revenue was 49.1%, below the five-year average of 54.4%[22] - Cumulative expenditure progress for government fund budgets was 60.0%, above the five-year average of 56.1%[22] Special Debt Issuance - By September 2025, the issuance of new local special bonds reached 3.68 trillion yuan, completing 83.6% of the annual plan[31] - The acceleration of fund activation post-special bond issuance is expected to improve liquidity and stabilize infrastructure investment growth[31]