镍周报：短期基本面承压-20251018

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of the nickel industry are under pressure. The weakening of ferronickel prices and significant refined nickel inventory pressure are dragging down nickel prices. If the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may not rise significantly and could even decline further. However, in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing cycles, combined with China's anti - involution policies, will support nickel prices, and the new RKAB approval in the new year also presents potential positive factors for nickel prices. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, one can consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Resource end: Nickel ore prices have been stable recently. In the Philippines, despite the decline in domestic ferronickel prices and weakening demand, the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas has strengthened the mines' willingness to hold prices, so the short - term decline of Philippine nickel ore prices is unlikely. In Indonesia, the overall supply - demand remains loose, but due to concerns about the RKAB approval quotas in the fourth quarter and 2026, smelters have accelerated stockpiling, limiting the downward space of ore prices [11]. - Ferronickel: Ferronickel prices have continued to weaken recently. The slow de - stocking of stainless steel social inventory, limited support for stainless steel prices during the peak season, and low procurement willingness of steel enterprises have led to the weakening of ferronickel prices. The market has gradually shifted to trading the pessimistic expectation of the fundamentals after the peak season, and there is still room for further decline in the future [11]. - Intermediate products: On the supply side, the market's available and tradable supply has remained tight, strengthening the sellers' bargaining power, and some traders have raised their quotes, providing price support. On the demand side, as the downstream industries enter the peak demand season, enterprises' raw material procurement demand has been released. In this context, downstream enterprises' acceptance of high - priced MHP has gradually increased, and the MHP coefficient price has remained strong recently [11]. - Refined nickel: After the holiday, affected by the non - ferrous metals sector, nickel prices rebounded strongly. However, as the upward driving force weakened and market sentiment faded, nickel prices adjusted downward. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown and the continued Sino - US trade frictions have significantly reduced market risk appetite. In the spot market, overall transactions were average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands remained stable [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Spot market: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased, with decreases of 1,420 yuan/ton (- 1.14%) and 1,500 yuan/ton (- 1.22%) respectively. The spot price ratio increased by 0.16 (1.99%), and the import loss decreased by 3.05 percentage points [15]. - Futures market: The LME closing price decreased by 105 US dollars (- 0.69%), and the SHFE closing price decreased by 1,020 yuan (- 0.83%). The Russian nickel premium remained unchanged, while the LME nickel premium decreased by 8.2 US dollars/ton. The three - month price ratio increased by 0.18 (2.34%). The LME position decreased by 0.36 million lots (- 1.03%), and the SHFE position increased by 1.44 million lots (6.81%) [15]. - Inventory: The LME inventory increased by 1.32 million tons (5.54%), the SHFE inventory increased by 0.13 million tons (3.93%), the bonded area inventory decreased by 0.02 million tons (- 4.89%), the nickel plate spot inventory increased by 0.21 million tons (4.86%), and the nickel bean spot inventory decreased by 0.02 million tons (- 11.88%) [15]. 3.3 Cost End - Nickel ore: The report provides data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines through multiple charts [29][31][33]. - Ferronickel: It shows the monthly production and production profit of ferronickel in Indonesia and China through charts [35][37]. - Intermediate products: It presents the production, import volume, and price of Indonesian MHP and ice - nickel, as well as the price and transaction coefficient of intermediate products through charts [39][41][43]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - Supply: It shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rate of domestic refined nickel through charts [47]. - Demand: It reflects the demand for refined nickel from aspects such as domestic stainless steel production, social inventory, manufacturing terminal demand, and real estate demand through charts [49][51]. - Import and export: It shows the import volume and import profit and loss of domestic refined nickel through charts [53]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the global visible nickel inventory was reported at 270,000 tons, and the report also shows the domestic refined nickel inventory and LME regional inventory through charts [56][58]. - Cost: It shows the production cost and profit margin of domestic refined nickel by raw material and process through charts [59]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Supply: It shows the production and net import volume of Chinese nickel sulfate through charts [63]. - Demand: It reflects the demand for nickel sulfate from aspects such as ternary power battery loading volume and Chinese ternary precursor production through charts [66]. - Cost and price: It shows the production cost, price, and main raw material production profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate through charts [68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Global supply outlook: It shows the global nickel supply outlook through a chart [75]. - Quarterly supply - demand balance forecast: From 2023 to 2025, the supply of nickel has generally exceeded the demand, with a total supply - demand surplus of 82,900 tons in 2023, 2,720 tons in 2024, and it is expected to be 166,400 tons in 2025 [75].