美国政府停摆继续，信贷危机担忧升温，降息预期下金银价格持续新高

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and rising credit crisis concerns have led to expectations of interest rate cuts, resulting in sustained highs for gold and silver prices. COMEX gold rose by 5.76% to $4,267.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver increased by 6.55% to $50.63 per ounce. SHFE gold and silver also saw significant increases of 10.53% to 999.80 yuan per gram and 12,249.00 yuan per kilogram, respectively [1][2][30]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The gold-silver ratio fell by 0.74% to 84.30. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 966,285.71 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 1,452,401.60 ounces [1][30]. - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 17th day, with significant economic impacts estimated at a weekly loss of $15 billion. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for further interest rate cuts are expected to support gold prices [3][45][46]. - The silver market is experiencing extreme tightness, leading to a historical "short squeeze" with leasing rates exceeding 35%. Global silver shortages are projected to reach approximately 3,660 tons in 2025, with industrial demand expected to grow due to AI-driven applications [7][47]. Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices rose by 2.25% to $10,607.00 per ton, while aluminum increased by 1.18% to $2,778.50 per ton. Zinc and lead prices, however, saw declines [8][9]. - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to production disruptions in major mines, with a projected reduction of 200,000 tons in Q4 2025. The macroeconomic environment remains supportive of copper prices, with expectations of continued U.S. dollar depreciation [10][11][21]. - Aluminum demand remains stable, with production expected to increase due to new projects. The profit margins for electrolytic aluminum are improving as raw material costs decline [12][22]. Minor Metals - Magnesium prices have decreased by 1.43% to 17,920 yuan per ton, while molybdenum prices rose by 3.28% to 283,500 yuan per ton due to increased demand from steelmaking [17][18]. - The market for vanadium remains under pressure, with prices declining as steel demand has not met expectations [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold and silver stocks due to their expected performance in the current economic climate. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [6][20][47].