国信期货热卷周报：需求仍弱，热卷延续弱势-20251019

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, the year-on-year inventories of hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils reached new highs in recent years, with prominent contradictions. Since the peak season this year, steel inventories have been rising, mainly due to weak demand and high production capacity, and steel profits have been continuously compressed. Due to the support of terminal demand, especially exports, the market is relatively restrained in shorting steel profits. The high steel production leads to strong demand for raw materials, providing some cost support for steel prices. Currently, steel inventories are large and terminal demand is weak. Steel may start to reduce production and enter a negative feedback loop. Even if production is not reduced, steel prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in short-term short positions [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Hot-rolled Coil Main Contract Trend - This week, the hot-rolled coil main contract showed short-term narrow-range fluctuations and continued its weak trend [9]. 1.2 Hot-rolled Coil Spot Trend - The spot market showed weak fluctuations [11]. 2.1 Hot-rolled Coil Futures-Spot Price Difference Trend - The 01 basis is 61, the 05 basis is 60, and the 10 basis is 26 [14]. 2.2 Cold-Hot Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.1 Hot-rolled Coil Profit - The production profit is 84, the 01 contract's on-screen profit is 144, the 05 contract's on-screen profit is 110, and the 10 contract's on-screen profit is 127 [21]. 3.2 Hot-rolled Coil Production - The hot-rolled coil production is 321.84, the cold-rolled coil production is 87.41, the rebar production is 201.16, and the production of the five major steel products is 856.95 [24]. 3.3 Raw Materials - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.4 Hot-rolled Coil Inventory - The hot-rolled coil inventory is 419.19, the cold-rolled coil inventory is 183.45, the rebar inventory is 641.05, and the inventory of the five major steel products is 1582.26 [29]. 3.5 Terminal Demand - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.6 Export - Exports continued to strengthen month-on-month, and exports supported demand [34]. 4.后市展望 - The market situation and operation strategy are the same as the core view [37].