国信期货有色（镍）周报：底部区间，持续震荡-20251019

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report Title: "Bottom Range, Continuous Fluctuation - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" [2][3] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [3] Group 2: Report Structure - The report includes three parts: market review, fundamental analysis, and future outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - This part presents the price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Upstream: It shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports [10] - Mid - stream: It includes the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and the import volume of ferronickel and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, etc [12][14][16] - Downstream: It covers the price, position, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles [18][25][27] Group 5: Future Outlook - Macroeconomic Situation: The Fed Chairman Powell said the employment and inflation outlook in the US "seem not to have changed much", and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, which will provide more space for China's domestic monetary policy. China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing an improving manufacturing climate [32] - Market Trends: Shanghai nickel showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. The premium and discount of refined nickel brands were stable with average trading. The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines was affected by weather, while the supply in the Indonesian market was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate rebounded recently, but its medium - term trend remains to be seen. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. It is expected that the operating range of the main Shanghai nickel contract will be approximately 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main stainless - steel contract will be about 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton [32]