Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward this week. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year-on-year. The port inventory has increased, while the steel mill inventory has slightly declined. The daily average pig iron output remains high but is expected to gradually decline in the future. The recommended operating strategy is to participate in the short - term bearish market [38]. Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review - Iron Ore Main Contract and Spot Trends: The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward this week. The prices of various iron ore spot products have changed. For example, the price of PB powder has dropped from 821 to 784, and the price of Super Special powder has dropped from 917 to 712 [9][12]. 2. Basis and Spread - Iron Ore Futures - Spot Price Difference: The main contract basis is 3.5, the 01 - 05 spread is 21.5, the pb - super special spread is 75, and the Brazilian coarse - pb spread is 6 [18]. - Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore: The ratio of rebar to iron ore continues to be weak [21]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - Iron Ore Supply: This week, the weekly shipment of mainstream mines is 1950.3 tons, and the domestic mine capacity utilization rate is 60.66%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year [24]. - International Ocean Freight: The freight rate of iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 10.46 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.73 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 2046 [27]. - Iron Ore Inventory - Imported Ore Inventory: The port inventory is 14278.27 tons, the Australian ore inventory is 5869.73 tons, the Brazilian ore inventory is 5684 tons, the iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and the trade ore inventory is 9208.11 tons [30]. - Iron Ore Inventory - Steel Mill Inventory: This week, the iron ore port inventory is 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory is 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons. The available days of the steel mill's imported iron ore are 21 days, unchanged from the previous week [31]. - Iron Ore Demand: This week, the daily average pig iron output is 240.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons. The daily average port clearance volume has returned to normal after the holiday. The pig iron output remains high with strong resilience but is expected to gradually decline in the future [34]. 4. Future Outlook - The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year. The port inventory has increased, while the steel mill inventory has slightly declined. The daily average pig iron output remains high but is expected to gradually decline. The recommended operating strategy is to participate in the short - term bearish market [38].
国信期货铁矿石周报：钢厂逐步减产，铁矿弱势回调-20251019
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-19 01:14