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Core Insights - The report argues that the recent market uptrend since June is not primarily driven by "residential deposit migration," but rather by an improvement in risk appetite and a shift in earnings expectations [1] - It highlights several misconceptions regarding the migration of residential deposits and emphasizes that the changes in non-bank deposits are more of a consequence than a cause of market movements [1] Misconceptions about Residential Deposit Migration - The decline in wealth management yields due to lower risk-free rates has not significantly prompted residents to shift towards other asset types; instead, they have increased their allocation to medium-term wealth management products [2] - Historical data shows that high growth in non-bank deposits typically corresponds with a booming equity market, while recent trends indicate that new residential deposits have not fluctuated significantly [2] - The report notes that periods of significant residential market entry often coincide with overheated market sentiment, suggesting that such behavior may lead to market tops rather than sustained growth [2] Market Drivers - The primary drivers of the market are identified as changes in narrative, improved risk appetite, and enhanced earnings expectations, with liquidity playing a secondary role [3] - The report utilizes a DDM model to illustrate that since September of the previous year, market gains have been predominantly attributed to improved risk appetite, followed by earnings expectations, while the impact of reduced risk-free rates has been minimal [3] Market Trading Logic - The report indicates a shift in market trading logic from valuation-driven to a "Davis Double Play" approach, where performance is increasingly guided by earnings rather than just valuations [3] - It notes that the strong performance of the overseas computing sector has significantly influenced the domestic market, particularly in the technology and innovation sectors [3] Earnings Recovery Indicators - Two leading indicators suggest that corporate earnings may have bottomed out: credit expansion typically precedes earnings recovery by about nine months, with a turning point expected in November [4] - Additionally, the growth rate difference between corporate and residential deposits serves as an economic activity indicator, with a turning point anticipated around August [4] Current Trading Risks - The report identifies three key trading risks: a decline in financing, high valuations, and geopolitical risks, which have contributed to increased market volatility since September [5] - It emphasizes the need for risk control in the current environment, despite the presence of potential opportunities in various sectors [5] Sector Focus - The report suggests focusing on hard technology sectors, particularly those related to overseas computing and chip manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from increased demand and narrative-driven growth [5] - Specific areas of interest include innovative pharmaceuticals entering commercial phases, AI applications in media and internet sectors, and consumer electronics transitioning into new cycles [5]