供需双降，底部震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals show a double - decline in supply and demand. The change in the supply side is slow, while the demand side has a continuous downward expectation, which suppresses the upside space of prices. The valuation level and cost side have certain support, and the overall trend is mainly bottom - range oscillation [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Fundamentals: Supply side shows differentiation, with a slight decline in ferrosilicon production but a slight increase in silicomanganese production. The total supply remains high. Demand side has a slight decline in the molten iron output of 247 steel mills. With the end of the traditional steel peak season and poor inventory reduction, there is a downward expectation for raw material demand. The cost side is supported by strong动力煤 prices, stable electricity prices in ferroalloy production areas, and low manganese ore inventory [5] - Macro - aspects: The Fourth Plenary Session next week to announce the 14th Five - Year Plan may boost market sentiment, but the short - term stimulus is expected to be limited. The anti - involution trading has also driven the alloy market, but the effect is weakening due to high supply [5] 3.1.2 Strategies - Single - side: Bottom - range oscillation - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0059 million tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types is 19,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons, and for silicomanganese is 121,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons [11] - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 35.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon is 112,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 43.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. The weekly supply of silicomanganese is 208,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,600 tons [12] - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 69,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 263,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [13] 3.2.2 Other Data - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in different regions are provided, showing losses in most regions [30][40] - Price and Basis: Market prices and basis of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are presented [18] - Production and Capacity Utilization: Data on the production, operating rate, and capacity utilization of steel mills and ferroalloy enterprises are shown [23][28] - Import and Export: Data on the net import of manganese ore and net export of ferrosilicon are presented [66] - Inventory: Inventories of alloy factories, steel mills, and ports for manganese ore and ferrosilicon are provided [72][75]