Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel mills continued to cut production. After the holiday, steel demand improved, but hot - rolled coil production was high with inventory accumulation (though at a slower pace), while rebar shifted to destocking. The black - related sectors were under pressure, but steel prices had low valuations and there was some support below. The "14th Five - Year Plan" and other factors would affect the market. Suggestions included holding long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, and taking a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and options [4][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, rebar small - sample production was 201.16 tons (-3.62), hot - rolled coil small - sample production was 321.84 tons (-1.45). 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal was 240.95 tons (-0.59), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 33.2% (+4.8). Short - process profits declined, long - process steel profits continued to shrink and turned to losses. Overall, steel production enthusiasm was still strong [4] - Demand: Rebar apparent demand was 217.43 tons (+64.25), hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 316.34 tons (+21.33). After the holiday, steel destocking accelerated, but downstream construction sites had difficulties in receiving payments. Real estate demand was weak, the manufacturing PMI was still below the boom - bust line, the auto industry maintained positive growth but with shrinking profits, and the white - goods production schedule declined. Overseas, the US manufacturing was recovering, while the eurozone's manufacturing was weak [4] - Inventory: Rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.46 tons [4] - Outlook: After the holiday, steel demand improved with the temperature drop, but the black - related sectors were under pressure. Steel prices had low valuations and there was some support below. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [6] - Trading Strategies: Suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and options, and continue to hold long positions in the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [8] Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: In Shanghai, the rebar summary price was 3290 yuan (-30), and the hot - rolled coil price was 3290 yuan (-100). In Beijing, the rebar summary price was 3190 yuan (-60), and in Tianjin, the hot - rolled coil price was 3190 yuan (-100) [12] - Profit: Long - process steel profits continued to shrink and turned to losses. Short - process steel profits declined, with the East China flat - rate electric furnace profit at - 262.61 yuan (-54.8) and the valley - rate electric furnace profit at - 98 yuan (-55) [4][26] Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - Trade and Policy: China announced counter - measures against the US 301 investigation on the shipbuilding industry, and would charge special port fees on US - related ships starting from October 14. In September 2025, China exported 1046.5 tons of steel, a 10.0% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative export from January to September was 8795.5 tons, a 9.2% increase year - on - year [28] - Macroeconomic Indicators: In September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.21%. From January to August 2025, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate continued to decline, with real estate investment being a drag on domestic demand, and insufficient new infrastructure investment projects [28][33] - Real Estate Data: In 2025, the real estate market continued to be weak, with continuous declines in new construction, completion, and sales areas [4][33] Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal production was 240.95 tons (-0.59), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 33.2% (+4.8). Rebar small - sample production was 201.16 tons (-3.62), and hot - rolled coil small - sample production was 321.84 tons (-1.45) [53][57] - Demand: Rebar apparent demand was 217.43 tons (+64.25), hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 316.34 tons (+21.33). Construction site funds were tight, and downstream demand was under pressure. The steel export in September was strong, and it was expected to maintain strong resilience in the future [60][72] - Inventory: Rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.46 tons [4]
钢材：板材压力大，原料端支撑仍存
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-19 03:13