大会期间资金平稳或仍占主导

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The funding situation has entered a comfortable state again in mid - early October, with limited disturbances and many supporting factors, and it is expected to remain stable next week [1][21] - Historically, funding disturbances in October are mainly concentrated in the second half, but important meetings have limited direct impact on the funding situation. This year, the funding situation is expected to maintain a seasonal stable state [20][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Next Week's Funding Still Expected to Be Stable - In mid - early October, the funding situation entered a comfortable state, with factors like holiday cash withdrawal funds flowing back, fiscal expenditures in place, and significant net long - term liquidity injection from the central bank [1][11] - Historically, funding disturbances in October are mainly in the second half due to tax payments and cross - month pressures. Important meetings in October in recent years have limited impact on the funding situation [17][20] - This year, the funding situation is expected to be seasonally stable. Next week's disturbances are limited, mainly government bond issuances on Monday and Friday, and relatively high certificate of deposit maturities on Tuesday and Friday. The central bank's precise control is expected to keep the funding situation loose [21] 3.2 Open Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale to Decline - From 10/13 - 10/17, the open - market net injection was - 6979 billion yuan. From 10/20 - 10/24, the open - market maturity is 7891 billion yuan [3][27] 3.3 Government Bonds: To Issue Over 800 Billion Yuan Next Week - From 10/13 - 10/17, government bonds were issued worth 3083 billion yuan. From 10/20 - 10/24, the planned issuance is 8802 billion yuan, with net treasury bond payment of 21.6 billion yuan and net local bond payment of 136.7 billion yuan [4][36] 3.4 Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in October 2025 will be about 1.43%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.42 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.33 pct [40] 3.5 Money Market: Large Banks' Lending Willingness Continues to Recover - Most funding interest rates declined. As of 10/17, compared with 10/10, DR001 rose 0.21 BP, DR007 fell 1.44 BP, R001 rose 3.83 BP, and R007 fell 1.65 BP [5] - The average net lending of the banking system's funds was 4.07 trillion yuan, with state - owned large banks' average net lending at 4.38 trillion yuan, and the overnight lending ratio at 97% [5] 3.6 Interbank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1 Primary Market: Issuance Scale to Increase - From 10/13 - 10/17, the total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 727.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 23.4 billion yuan, an increase compared to 10/9 - 10/11 [6] - Next week (10/20 - 10/26), the maturity scale of interbank certificates of deposit is 603 billion yuan, an increase of 109.4 billion yuan compared to this week [76] 3.6.2 Secondary Market: Yields to Rise Slightly - Yields of certificates of deposit of all maturities rose. Yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y AAA - rated certificates of deposit changed by 3, 3, 2, 1, 0 BP respectively [90]