Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the insulin industry [10] Core Insights - The insulin market is stabilizing post-collection procurement, with companies focusing on innovation and steady progress in R&D pipelines, creating a closed-loop advantage in insulin, diabetes, endocrine, and metabolism sectors [3][9] - The progress of insulin exports is promising, expected to contribute to new growth [8] - The cash flow of companies is gradually stabilizing, and the valuation of innovative pipelines is likely to be reshaped [9] Summary by Sections Domestic Insulin Collection Procurement - The domestic insulin market is broad, with insulin analogs becoming the main driving force. In 2021, there were approximately 14.1 million diabetes patients in China, with an expected increase to 29.3 million by 2030. The market size for insulin in China is projected to be 22.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.23% [20] - The first round of national collection procurement was moderate, ensuring basic procurement volume and expanding external market channels. Nearly 50% of the insulin market share was not included in the procurement, allowing leading companies to significantly increase sales volume [27][20] - The second round of procurement renewal has seen price increases for some companies, reflecting a balanced approach by the National Medical Insurance Administration [30][27] Insulin Export Progress - Companies like Ganli Pharmaceutical and Tonghua Dongbao are making significant progress in exporting insulin to developed regions like Europe and the US, where the insulin market is valued at $13.2 billion. The market in developing regions such as Asia, Africa, and Latin America is estimated to be between $4.3 billion and $6.5 billion [8][20] Innovative Drug Pipeline - The innovative drug pipeline is gradually yielding results, with a focus on GLP-1 research and development. Insulin companies are expected to leverage their advantages in sales terminals, process development, and production capacity in the GLP-1 sector [9][8] - The management teams and innovation systems of these companies are undergoing significant changes, which may lead to a reshaping of their valuations [9]
胰岛素深度:集采出清拐点已现,凝聚创新、出海新共识