四中全会将召开，暂谨慎看待债市

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current round of trade frictions, the probability of the US making concessions is higher, but the process is full of twists and turns. The impact of recent trade conflicts on risk appetite is not one - way. The Fourth Plenary Session may affect market risk appetite. If policies are positive, it may impact the bond market. Economic data is weak, which is favorable for the bond market, but policy may cause disturbances [2] - In terms of strategies, for the next week, short - term trading should adopt a cautious approach; the short - hedge strategy should be on the sidelines; and the curve - flattening strategy can be considered if optimistic about the bond market [2] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From October 13th to 19th, Treasury bond futures fluctuated upwards. By the close on October 17th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures were 102.378, 105.775, 108.265, and 115.730 yuan respectively, up 0.006, 0.060, 0.165, and 1.250 yuan from last weekend [1][11][32] 1.2 Next Week's Views - Sino - US trade relations, the Fourth Plenary Session, and economic data will affect the bond market. Short - term trading should be cautious. The US is more likely to make concessions in trade frictions, but there are twists. The Fourth Plenary Session may affect market risk appetite. Economic data is weak, favorable for the bond market, but policies may cause disturbances [2][14][15] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 47 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 450.661 billion yuan and a net financing of 2.0189 billion yuan. 21 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 32.301 billion yuan and a net financing of - 1.9781 billion yuan. 563 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 729.53 billion yuan and a net financing of 224.66 billion yuan [20] 2.2 Secondary Market - As of October 17th, most Treasury bond yields declined. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year CDB bonds also changed [24] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - By the close on October 17th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures increased. The trading volumes and open interests of different - term Treasury bond futures also changed compared to last week [32][35] 3.2 Basis and IRR - Relevant data on the IRR and basis of the CTD bonds of Treasury bond futures are presented in the charts, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [37] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of October 17th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts changed compared to last weekend [42] 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of funds. Repo trading volume decreased, and funding rates declined [46][49][50] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield declined slightly. Sino - US trade conflicts escalated, and US regional banks' problems led to a decline in market risk appetite [55] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell across the board, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [59] 7. Investment Recommendations - Due to many uncertainties next week, short - term trading should adopt a cautious approach [2][60]