全球资产配置每周聚焦（20251010-20251017）：中美贸易不确定性上升，黄金白银领涨全球-20251019

Group 1: Market Overview - The uncertainty in China-US trade relations has increased, leading to a rise in gold and silver prices globally, with silver up 7.33% and gold up 6.51% during the week[6] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 3 basis points to 4.02%, while the US dollar index fell by 0.27% to 98.6, remaining below 100[9] - The ChiNext, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech have shown significant gains this year but experienced some adjustments this week due to increased trade uncertainties[6] Group 2: Capital Flows - Domestic capital saw a significant inflow into the Chinese stock market, with a total of $133.02 billion inflowing over the past week[3] - Overseas active funds saw an inflow of $1.76 billion, while passive funds saw $1.22 billion inflow during the same period[3] - The US equity market attracted over $130 billion in inflows, particularly in technology, healthcare, and financial sectors[3] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The A-share equity risk premium (ERP) has risen significantly, with the PE ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index recovering to over 50%[3] - The PE ratio percentiles for the S&P 500 and CAC 40 are at 92.9% and 91.1%, respectively, indicating high valuations compared to historical levels[3] - The risk-adjusted returns for the S&P 500 increased from the 42nd to the 44th percentile, while the risk-adjusted returns for the CSI 300 decreased from the 76th to the 69th percentile[3] Group 4: Economic Indicators - US manufacturing PMI and industrial output index showed marginal improvement, while non-manufacturing PMI and inflation expectations weakened slightly[3] - China's September CPI, core CPI, and PPI showed signs of recovery, with significant improvements in year-on-year import and export growth rates[3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is at 99%, slightly up from 98.3% the previous week[3]