资金观察，货币瞭望：央行数量工具展现出呵护态度，预计10月市场利率下行

Core Insights - The central conclusion of the report indicates that the central bank's quantitative tools demonstrate a protective attitude, with expectations for a seasonal decline in market interest rates in October [4][64][90] Overseas Monetary Market Indicators - The Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut aligns with expectations, leading to a decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields, with the 3-month Treasury yield gradually falling to around 4% [6] - The U.S. federal funds rate and SOFR rate have remained stable since September [6] Domestic Monetary Market Indicators Price Indicators - The average interbank and exchange repo rates increased slightly in September, with R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 changing by 4 basis points, 5 basis points, 4 basis points, and 8 basis points respectively, reaching average values of 1.43%, 1.43%, 1.55%, and 1.58% [15][24] - Short-term bond yields generally increased, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 2 basis points to 1.39% [34] Volume Indicators - In September, the overnight transaction volume and proportion on exchanges increased compared to the previous month, while interbank transaction volume and proportion decreased [43] - The central bank's net injection maintained a balanced and loose funding environment, with a net injection of 720.2 billion yuan through open market operations [49] Funding Outlook - The report predicts a slight decline in the excess reserve ratio for October, estimating it at 1.6% [90] - The central bank is expected to continue net injections to maintain a stable funding environment, with a projected net injection of 500 billion yuan through open market operations in October [85][90] Seasonal Trends - The report notes seasonal patterns in M0, with an increase of 241.1 billion yuan in September and an expected increase of 60 billion yuan in October [65] - Fiscal deposits are expected to seasonally increase by 600 billion yuan in October due to concentrated tax revenue collection [71]