周观：经贸博弈下的债市参与空间（2025年第40期）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the repeated Sino - US economic and trade game, the bond market maintained a relatively strong oscillation this week (2025.10.13 - 2025.10.17), but short - term participation should be cautious. The interest rate will oscillate within a box range before the "anti - involution" narrative is confirmed or refuted by actual data, with limited downward breakthrough momentum. It is recommended to appropriately shorten the duration [1][14]. - The long - and short - term yields of US Treasury bonds continued the previous downward trend from October 13th to 17th, 2025, indicating an increase in the marginal expectation of a US economic recession and a relative weakening of the stagflation expectation. The subsequent market's structured characteristics are expected to be further prominent. In the short term, it is beneficial to the technology - related direction and exerts certain pressure on the precious metals sector [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Bond Market Participation Space under Sino - US Economic and Trade Game - Yield change: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.2bp from 1.743% on October 11th to 1.745% this week [1]. - Daily review: On Monday (10.13), due to Trump's tariff relaxation signal and strong September import and export data, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 1.8bp. On Tuesday (10.14), the stock market's performance and counter - measures against US companies led to a 0.85bp decline. On Wednesday (10.15), inflation and financial data did not exceed expectations, and the yield rose 0.6bp. On Thursday (10.16),经贸 news caused a 0.55bp decline. On Friday (10.17), the bad debt problem of US regional banks and other factors led to a 0.8bp decline [11]. - Weekly thinking: The bond market maintained a relatively strong oscillation. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term. Since the "anti - involution" policy in July 2025, the yield curve has been "bear - steep". It is recommended to transfer 30Y positions to 10Y and appropriately shorten the duration [14]. 3.1.2 Impact of US Data on US Treasury Bond Yields - Yield trend: The long - and short - term yields of US Treasury bonds continued to decline, with the long - term yield falling below 4%, indicating an increase in the expectation of a US economic recession and a weakening of the stagflation expectation [17]. - Impact on sectors: It is beneficial to AI - related themes in the short term and exerts pressure on the precious metals sector [17]. - Considerations based on incremental data: - Crude oil inventory: The US crude oil inventory increased significantly in the week of October 10th, 2025, and the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil dropped to new lows since early May 2025, mainly due to factors such as increased inventory and weakened demand [17][19]. - Manufacturing index: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in October 2025 was far lower than expected, indicating an overall contraction of manufacturing activities, mainly affected by factors such as the end of the short - term government shutdown and employment deterioration [23]. - Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts: The Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts in the week of October 17th, 2025, was generally loose but with differences in amplitude and rhythm. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in October 2025 is expected to rise to 99.0%, and the possibility of another cut in December has also increased [27]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open - market operations: From October 13th to 17th, 2025, the net investment in open - market operations was - 3479 billion yuan [31]. - Interest rate changes: The money - market interest rates showed certain fluctuations, and the yields of Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds also changed [32][42]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Commodity prices: The official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures declined comprehensively. The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil dropped, and the VIX panic index led the rise while the WTI crude oil index led the fall [56][68]. - Real - estate market: The total transaction area of commercial housing increased comprehensively [50]. - Bond market: The yields of US Treasury bonds declined overall, and the term spreads of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds decreased [77][80]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Overall issuance: A total of 21 local bonds were issued this week, with a total issuance amount of 323.01 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 520.81 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 197.81 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive and social undertakings [85]. - Provincial issuance: Five provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Hubei, Shenzhen, Beijing, Jilin, and Dalian ranking in the top five in terms of issuance amount [87]. - Special refinancing bonds: Three provinces and cities issued local special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, with a total issuance amount of 97.15 billion yuan [92]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - Trading volume: The trading volume of local bonds this week was 3011.27 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.56%. Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were the top three provinces in terms of trading activity [101]. - Yield: The yields of local bonds declined overall [106]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for This Month The issuance plans of local bonds in multiple provinces and cities are provided, but specific data is not elaborated in detail [109]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Overall issuance: A total of 432 credit bonds were issued this week, with a total issuance amount of 4090.61 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 2293.67 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 1796.63 billion yuan, an increase of 2890.25 billion yuan compared with last week [110]. - Bond type: The net financing amounts of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes were 370.18 billion yuan, 870.36 billion yuan, - 44.51 billion yuan, 572.48 billion yuan, and 28.12 billion yuan respectively [115]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes decreased, while that of corporate bonds increased [122]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total transaction amount of credit bonds was 6629.26 billion yuan, with different transaction amounts for different bond types and credit ratings [123]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yields of various types of credit bonds declined overall [124][126][127][130]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes narrowed overall, while those of corporate bonds showed a differentiated trend, and those of urban investment bonds narrowed overall [132][136][139]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes widened overall, while those of corporate bonds narrowed overall [141][145].