【股指期货周报】风险偏好下降，股指本周继续震荡-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, Sino-US frictions have deepened, which will affect the stock index trend, especially high - valuation technology stocks. The stock index is expected to undergo an adjustment, but the decline may be weaker than that in April, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with a continuous influx of incremental funds, so there is still upward momentum [3]. - The US is entering a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for RMB appreciation and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds [9]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of the stock index is clear. New technologies and new consumption are promoting the stabilization and recovery of economic expectations [9]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - and long - term funds and residents into the market will enter a new cycle [9]. - In the future, attention should be paid to trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the market can still maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on semiconductor, AI computing power and other technology growth tracks with profit certainty, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance, securities, and consumption [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices declined, with the ChiNext and STAR Market experiencing significant drops. For example, the STAR 50 index fell by 6.16%, and the ChiNext index fell by 5.71%. Among global indices, the NASDAQ index rose by 2.14%, and the Hang Seng Tech index fell by 7.98% [12][17]. - By industry, the trends of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices were divergent this week. A few sectors such as coal, banking, and food and beverage rose, while sectors such as media, electronics, and telecommunications led the decline [17]. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management products promoted the recovery of M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The M1 balance decreased by 7.4% year - on - year, with the decline rate widening by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month, and it has been in negative growth for 7 consecutive months. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow [15][16][18]. - The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while the weakness of RMB loans was the main drag, indicating that the recovery of real - economy financing demand still takes time. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan. The balance of outstanding social financing was 402.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%, with the growth rate slightly declining by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month [18]. - The funds rate (DR007) remained low, and 300 billion yuan of MLF was injected in September. The yield of 10 - year government bonds was around 1.7% [18]. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and high - priced stocks adjusted. The average daily trading volume (MA5) decreased to around 2 trillion yuan. Liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring [28]. - From January to August 2025, the number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations. For example, 1.57 million new accounts were opened in January, and 2.86 million in February [28]. Index Valuation - As of October 17, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index was at a low level. For major stock indices, the valuation quantiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50 [36]. - The stock - bond cost - performance ratios and their quantiles of major stock indices such as SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 were also presented, providing a reference for investment decisions [42]. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 index, the weights of banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [45][46]. - In the SSE 300 index, the weights were more dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banking, non - banking finance, and electronics [46]. - In the CSI 500 index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance [46]. - In the CSI 1000 index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [46]. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set an economic growth target of 3% and a CPI increase target of around 2%. A moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy were implemented, with a planned deficit rate of around 4% and the issuance of 1.8 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. In May, the deposit reserve ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and the provident fund interest rate was lowered by 0.35 percentage points. A 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the achievements of the financial industry during the 14th Five - Year Plan were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market were promoted [51][52]. - US Federal Reserve policy: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - basis - point cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October exceeded 30%, and there are still two expected rate cuts within the year [53]. - Sino - US relations: China's implementation of "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth control exceeded US expectations, and Trump countered by imposing additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18, which may affect market risk appetite in the short term [54].