工业硅：供需存走弱预期，多晶硅：政策逻辑仍存，关注落地节点

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are weakening, and the futures market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the expected trading range for next week is 8,200 - 8,700 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, policy expectations still exist. One can look for buying opportunities at low prices. The expected trading range for next week is 51,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon's futures price showed a weak and volatile trend, with the spot price falling. The futures closed at 8,430 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was reported at 8,750 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan week-on-week), and Inner Mongolia 99 silicon at 8,950 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week-on-week) [1]. - Polysilicon's futures price showed a strong and volatile trend, with the spot price remaining stable. The futures closed at 52,340 yuan/ton on Friday. The upstream's offer remained firm, while the downstream was still in a wait - and - see state [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory increased. The production in Xinjiang increased, and the southwest is expected to gradually reduce production from the end of October. The estimated production in October is 440,000 tons. The social inventory increased by 17,000 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 200 tons this week [2]. - Demand side: The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors support consumption. Polysilicon's production is high in October but will decline in November. Organic silicon has short - term maintenance, and the demand from the aluminum alloy end is mainly for rigid orders. The export market is stable [3]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly production remains high. Some idle production capacities are planned to resume production in October, with an estimated production of about 135,000 tons. Southwest leading factories will reduce production from November, and the inventory increased this week [3]. - Demand side: The silicon wafer production increased more than expected in October. The silicon wafer inventory is relatively low, and the average raw material inventory is close to 2 - 3 months. Silicon wafer manufacturers are in a wait - and - see state for procurement [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are weakening. The supply is expected to decrease month - on - month from November, and the demand will also decline. The futures price has limited upside space and is likely to decline. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to the futures warehouse receipt volume [6]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - There are still policy expectations. The supply and demand are in a weak state. The supply will shrink from November, and the demand from the silicon wafer end needs to be observed in November - December. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to the actual procurement price and the establishment time of the platform company [7]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon Price Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from September 19, 2025, to October 17, 2025 [10]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Supply - Side Charts - Multiple charts show the inventory, production, profit, export and import volume, and raw material prices of industrial silicon, including social inventory, factory inventory, monthly production, profit calculation, etc. [12][13][15] 3.6 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side Charts 3.6.1 Downstream Polysilicon - Charts show the spot price, production, industry profit, and related consumption data of polysilicon, such as the price of different types of polysilicon, monthly production, and industry profit calculation [21] 3.6.2 Downstream Organic Silicon - Charts show the average price, industry start - up rate, production, inventory, and profit of domestic DMC, as well as the export volume of primary - form polysiloxane [22][24] 3.6.3 Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Charts show the price, industry start - up rate, profit, and related consumption data of recycled aluminum ADC12, as well as the monthly sales volume of domestic automobiles [24][26]