棉花：预计期价短期偏震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures rebounded after reaching a low of 62.71 cents per pound, and its short - term trend is mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the commodity market, which is influenced by the international economic and trade situation, expected to last until late October to early November. Domestic cotton futures stabilized and rebounded. In the short term, the large - scale listing of new cotton and strong hedging willingness of ginning mills will limit the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures, while high basis and relatively low absolute prices will support it. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short term, with market fluctuations mainly coming from the complex international economic and trade situation [1][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data | Futures Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 64.00 | 64.50 | 62.71 | 64.29 | 0.52 | 0.82 | 109,570 | - 15,776 | 166,990 | - 2,793 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13,265 | 13,380 | 13,210 | 13,335 | 10 | 0.08 | 994,330 | 400,307 | 586,467 | 31,567 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 19,290 | 19,505 | 19,235 | 19,470 | 95 | 0.49 | 53,963 | 39,489 | 20,671 | 10,758 | [4] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE Cotton: It first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of the week, it continued the weakness of the previous two weeks, reaching a low of 62.71 cents per pound. Without data from the US Department of Agriculture, it was affected by technical selling pressure and stopped falling after getting support from commercial buyers. It was also affected by external market factors, mainly the market sentiment towards the international economic and trade situation [1][4]. - US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data: Due to the US government shutdown, the weekly export sales data from the US Department of Agriculture stopped being released [5]. - Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries: - India: Good rainfall is expected to increase yield. From June to September, rainfall in the northwest was 27% higher than the long - term average, and 15% and 10% higher in the central and southern regions respectively. The estimated cotton yield this year is about 460 kg per hectare, a 3% increase from the 2023/24 season. The daily arrival volume is accelerating, reaching about 89,200 bales on October 15, the highest since the 2020/21 season [6]. - Brazil: CONAB predicts that the cotton planting area in the new season will increase by 2.5% to 2.138 million hectares, but its forecast of 4.031 million tons of cotton production is slightly lower than the previous season due to a downward adjustment of the yield assessment. Other institutions have different predictions. CONAB slightly raised the 2024/25 season cotton production forecast to 4.077 million tons. The Esalq index of local SLM cotton in Brazil fell to 352.05 (about 64.40 cents per pound) on October 14, a 21% drop from the recent high in early June [7]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remains average. The estimated cotton production is 6 - 6.5 million bales. Imported cotton transactions did not increase significantly despite the new low of December ICE cotton futures. Domestic cotton prices fell, factories had sufficient inventory, and textile retailers only placed short - term orders. The local yarn and textile market remained weak. In September, the export value of the five major textile products was $1.3 billion, a 2.5% month - on - month increase but a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. In the first three months of the 2025/26 fiscal year, the cumulative export value of the five major textile products was $3.97 billion, a 6% increase from the same period in the 2024/25 fiscal year [7]. - Bangladesh: Policy uncertainty restricts cotton import purchases. Although the decline in US cotton futures has attracted some buying interest, most spinning enterprises are worried about weak cotton prices and low demand. Some enterprises may reduce production or shut down if the situation does not improve. Clothing manufacturers face narrowing profit margins due to US import tariffs [8][9]. - Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates: As of the week of October 17, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 68.5%, 62%, and 65% respectively [9]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton Spot Price: It was slightly weaker. In the week of October 17, the domestic cotton spot price center decreased slightly. New cotton was gradually increasing in volume, and buying power was average. Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly under cost support and hedging pressure. Spinning enterprises made rigid purchases this week, with better point - price transactions in the first half of the week and slightly weaker in the second half. After the rise of Zhengzhou cotton futures, fixed - price spot transactions were relatively smooth. Most fixed - price quotes remained stable, and some lower - priced quotes appeared. Many cotton merchants lowered the sales basis of cotton spot [10]. - Seed Cotton Purchase: This week, the purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was relatively stable, with the mainstream price at 6.1 - 6.2 yuan per kilogram, the higher price at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram, and the local high price at 6.3 - 6.4 yuan per kilogram. The theoretical cost of new cotton was 13,800 - 14,600 yuan per ton [11]. - Cotton Warehouse Receipts: As of October 17, there were 2,653 registered warehouse receipts and 183 pending warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 2,836 receipts, equivalent to 119,112 tons [11]. - Yarn and Fabric Mills: The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was weaker than last week, and sales slowed down. Overall, new orders were insufficient, with large factories having better orders than small ones, and non - conventional yarn selling better than conventional yarn. In terms of price, due to low inventory and seasonal rigid demand, the price was stable with a slight decline in the first half of the week and basically stable in the second half. In terms of profit, the cash flow of inland yarn mills turned positive, with a theoretical cash flow of about 50 yuan per ton, and Xinjiang spinning enterprises had good cash flow. The overall cash flow improvement led to a slight increase in the startup rate of some spinning enterprises, but the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly this week. The trading atmosphere in the all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with fabric mills maintaining small - order shipments. The production - sales rate was lower than in September, mainly due to weak downstream demand. Fabric prices were discounted according to quantity, and fabric mills maintained a slight loss. Currently, fabric mills mainly had small and scattered orders, and overall orders were scarce. Inquiries and samples for spring and summer orders were not good, and actual orders still needed to be awaited. After the National Day, the inventory of conventional varieties in fabric mills accumulated, and the startup rate was lower than before the holiday. Due to poor order connection, fabric mills mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and purchased according to orders [12]. 3. Basic Data Charts The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), cotton fabric enterprises' cotton fabric inventory (weekly), yarn enterprises' startup rate (weekly), cotton fabric enterprises' startup rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton fabric CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [14][15][16]. 4. Operation Suggestions Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short term, and market fluctuations may mainly come from the complex international economic and trade situation [17].