能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil continued to decline and reached the lowest point of the year. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the impact of the decline in Russian exports still exists, but most refineries plan to end maintenance at the end of October. If the operating rate of Russian refineries recovers, the high - sulfur market may face negative factors. Meanwhile, the crude oil import quotas of domestic local refineries are gradually being consumed, and some small and medium - sized refineries may increase fuel oil imports in the future, which needs continuous attention. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the external market has shown little fluctuation recently. Although the number of domestic LU warehouse receipts is gradually decreasing, the opening of the internal - external price difference will continue to attract foreign spot goods for delivery, which will significantly suppress the near - month valuation, and the monthly spread will remain weak in the near future [4]. - Valuation: FU is valued at 2650 - 2800, and LU is valued at 3050 - 3350 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU and LU have entered a low - price range, and the short - term downward space is relatively limited. 2) Inter - period: There is a probability that the LU monthly spread will continue to decline. 3) Inter - variety: The FU crack spread fluctuates at a high level; the LU - FU price difference may still shrink slightly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - Multiple charts show the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), the maintenance volume of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units, as well as the production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil over different years [6][10][20]. Demand - Charts present the demand data of fuel oil at home and abroad, including the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China over different years [23]. Inventory - Charts show the global fuel oil spot inventory, including the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US over different years [26][28][29]. Price and Spread - Regional Spot FOB Prices: Include the FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (such as in Singapore and Fujairah), the European region (such as in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean), and the US region (such as in the US Gulf and New York Harbor) over different years [34][36][43]. - Paper and Derivative Prices: Show the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of fuel oil futures contracts such as FU and LU over different years [46][47]. - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Include the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore [56][57]. - Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread: Present the crack spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [60][62]. - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: Show the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe [64]. Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Charts show the import and export quantities of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China over different years [69][71]. - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Present the weekly changes in the import and export quantities of global high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [73]. - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Show the weekly changes in the import and export quantities of global low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions [75]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Price Difference - Internal - External Price Difference in the Spot Market: Include the internal - external price differences of 380 - grade and 0.5% fuel oil, as well as the internal - external price differences between LU and Singapore [82][83][85]. - Internal - External Price Difference in the Futures Market: Include the internal - external price differences between FU and Singapore (such as FU main contract, FU continuous contract 1) and between LU and Singapore (such as LU continuous contract, LU continuous contract 1, LU continuous contract 2) [86][87]. - Changes in the Positions and Trading Volumes of FU and LU: Show the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil main contract, continuous contract 1, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contract, and continuous contract 1 over different years [90][92][95]. - Changes in the Warehouse Receipt Quantities of FU and LU: Present the changes in the warehouse receipt quantities of fu and lu over different years [102][103].