镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累，不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel show a fierce game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore logic, with contradictions still accumulating. In the short - term, it's difficult to break through the narrow - range pattern, while long - term volatility is expected to increase. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply governance policy [2]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel make it difficult to find an upward driving force, but the downward space is limited. The market may marginally stabilize and fluctuate. The long - term and short - term, as well as reality and expectation, are involved in the long - short game [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - Supply - demand situation: The smelting end has returned to steep inventory accumulation, with the surplus concentrated in the refined nickel segment. The marginal supply of refined nickel increases while demand is weak, and the expected new production of pure nickel in the second half of the year exerts pressure. Although the fundamentals of non - standard nickel have marginally improved, the conversion of refined nickel production has not effectively alleviated the inventory accumulation contradiction of refined nickel [2]. - Supporting factors: The uncertainties in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the Indonesian nickel ore supply governance policy support the price. For example, some areas of the WBN park were taken over due to violations of forestry license regulations, and mines failing to pay reclamation deposits were ordered to suspend production. The Indonesian government also urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget online, which may lead to increased market inventory and support the nickel ore price [2]. Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - Demand side: The overdraft effect of early export rush has been basically digested, but demand is still suppressed by the resonance of tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand is only half of the previous year, 2.6% [3]. - Supply side: The supply growth rate has declined compared with previous years but has a marginal increase. The production plan for October is 3.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The 300 - series is about 1.77 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/month - on - month increase of 4.2%/3.5%. The total supply (including imports) cumulative growth rate is expected to be 1.8% [3]. - Supply - demand balance: The cumulative surplus (inventory accumulation) has converged compared with previous years. In the long - term, the stainless - steel industry may shift from a one - sided valuation - reduction logic of strong supply and weak demand to a bottom - seeking thinking of both weak supply and demand. In the short - term, there is no upward driving force in the fundamentals, but the cost limits the downward space [3]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 47,505 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,814 tons to 27,042 tons, the spot inventory increased by 261 tons to 16,573 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 3,890 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13,152 tons to 250,530 tons [6]. - New energy: On October 17, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by - 1, - 1, + 1 month - on - month to 4, 8, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory on October 17 changed by - 1 month - on - month to 13.0 days; the ternary material inventory on October 9 remained unchanged month - on - month at 7.1 days [6]. - Nickel - iron and stainless steel: On October 15, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,062 tons, with a stable and slightly increasing month - on - month trend and a year - on - year increase of 41%. In September, the SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 1.532 million tons, a year - on - month/month - on - month increase/decrease of 4%/ - 1%. On October 16, the Mysteel stainless - steel social inventory was 1.0412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%, and the 300 - series inventory was 655,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02% [6]. Market News - Indonesian mining sanctions: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare mining area of PT WedaBav Nickel. The Indonesian government also imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees [7][8]. - Policy regulations: The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the preparation, submission, and approval procedures of the mining RKAB and the reporting procedures for activity implementation. The approval plan for the next - year's RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15 this year [9]. - Trade news: China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8][9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - Futures prices: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,160, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630. There were also corresponding price changes compared with previous periods [11]. - Trading volume: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 76,335, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 147,948, with different volume changes compared with previous periods [11]. - Industrial chain data: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, nickel bean premium, and various product spreads and import profits were provided, showing different trends compared with previous periods [11].