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黑色与建材原木周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-19 08:28
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of mainstream delivery product 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong remained flat, while in Jiangsu it increased by 5 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong increased by 60 yuan/cubic meter. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were in short supply [4]. - The total number of ships departing from New Zealand in October was 19, with 15 going to mainland China. It is expected that 1750000 cubic meters will arrive in October [5][8]. - As of the week of October 10, the daily shipment volume of major ports decreased, and the total inventory of four major ports increased by 39100 cubic meters compared with the previous week [6][13]. - As of October 17, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 decreased by 2.1% compared with the previous week, showing a weak - oscillating trend. The contango spread further widened [19]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Supply - As of October 12, 19 ships departed from New Zealand in October, with 15 going to mainland China and 4 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for lightering. It is expected that 19 ships will arrive in October and 0 in November, with an expected arrival of 1.75 million cubic meters in October [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - Demand: As of the week of October 10, the daily shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 12600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 4600 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 8600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 5800 cubic meters) [6][13]. - Inventory: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1181800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 26000 cubic meters), Taicang Port was about 405100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 34300 cubic meters), Xinminzhou was about 357400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 52400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 118500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 5000 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2062800 cubic meters, an increase of 39100 cubic meters compared with the previous week [6][13] 3.3 Market Trends - As of October 17, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 804 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 2.1% compared with the previous week. The market showed a weak - oscillating trend, and the contango spread further widened. The 11 - 01 spread was - 31.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 11 - 03 spread was - 31 yuan/cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 spread was 0.5 yuan/cubic meter [19] 3.4 Other - Freight and Exchange Rates: As of the week of October 19, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2069 points, an increase of 133 points (+6.9%) compared with the previous week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.4% compared with the previous week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, an increase of 12.9% compared with the previous week. The US dollar index oscillated weakly. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.06% week - on - week, and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.2% to 1.744 [6][55][56]