Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-19 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the volatility in metal prices due to fluctuating tariff expectations and geopolitical factors, particularly affecting copper and aluminum prices [4][30]. - The precious metals sector is expected to benefit from increased central bank purchases, particularly gold, as the current pricing environment favors safety over yield [22]. - Industrial metals like copper are projected to see price increases due to stable demand from infrastructure investments and AI data centers, despite short-term tariff impacts [4][30]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 4.99% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals index decreased by 3.07%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.85 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 69.59%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 54.87 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% [4]. - Industrial metals experienced mixed results, with copper prices decreasing by 4.34% and aluminum by 1.19% [4][9]. - Lithium prices showed slight increases, while cobalt prices surged by 10.33% [4][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is expected to tighten due to production disruptions from incidents at major mines, with a projected 2.2% decrease in global copper supply [4][30]. - The aluminum sector is witnessing stable demand, with a shift towards peak consumption season anticipated [4][44]. - The steel industry is experiencing a decrease in production, while downstream demand is increasing, leading to a reduction in steel inventory [4][20]. Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the precious metals sector include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with varying price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating differing market expectations [19]. - In the industrial metals sector, companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted for their growth potential, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [19][20].