天然橡胶周度报告-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the natural rubber market will experience range - bound fluctuations in the short term. Overseas weather improvements are putting pressure on raw material prices, and there is a risk of further weakening in the cost support for rubber prices. However, the reduction in the arrival of standard rubber at ports provides some support for rubber prices, and the expected inventory build - up has not materialized yet [100][101]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - Cambodia's latex exports in the first nine months of 2025 decreased by 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons, with export revenue down 1%. Domestic latex consumption increased by 102% [5]. - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million for the first time in the same period of history, with production reaching 327.6 million and sales 322.6 million, up 17.1% and 14.9% year - on - year respectively [6]. - In the first nine months of 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 19.2% year - on - year to 611.5 million tons [7]. - The ANRPC called for setting a living - wage rubber price for rubber farmers [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - The rubber market declined overall this week, with a significant drop in RU. On October 17, 2025, the closing price of RU2601.SHF was 14,695 yuan/ton, down 4.05% from the previous period; NR2601.SHF was 12,155 yuan/ton, down 1.82% [10][12]. - The basis and monthly spreads changed. On October 17, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 595 yuan/ton, up 16.78% from the previous period; the 01 - 05 monthly spread was 10 yuan/ton, down 75% from the previous period [17]. - Other spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, RU - JPX RSS3, and NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The substitution prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber also declined [18][31]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU and NR increased, while the settled funds decreased [34]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - In Thailand, rainfall in the south was slightly lower than the same period, and rainfall in the northeast increased. In China, precipitation in domestic production areas eased compared to last week [41][42]. - The prices of Thai cup rubber and smoked sheets, as well as the glue prices in Hainan and Yunnan, decreased, while the Thai glue price increased slightly [44]. - The price difference between Thai water and cup rubber widened, and the price difference of Hainan glue between entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole milk factory increased [47]. - The processing profit of Thai standard rubber improved, while the production profits of smoked sheets and concentrated latex declined. The delivery profit in Hainan decreased, while that in Yunnan slightly rebounded [52][55]. - In August 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but the exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Exports to China also showed similar trends [63][66]. - In September 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, but exports to China decreased month - on - month [69]. - In August 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the exports of standard rubber and latex to China continued to grow strongly [73]. - In August 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high level year - on - year, and exports to China were also at a high level year - on - year [76]. - In August 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) were 52.08 million tons, up 9.68% month - on - month and 5.39% year - on - year [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly, with the all - steel tire inventory continuing to rise and the semi - steel tire inventory continuing to decline [84]. - In August 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level year - on - year. The sales of heavy - duty trucks continued to recover in August, and the sales of passenger cars continued to grow strongly in September [85]. - In August 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation improved slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year [88]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The natural rubber inventory continued to decline, with the decline in light - colored rubber being significantly greater than that in dark - colored rubber. The futures inventory of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber also decreased [92][97]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: As of Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and the cup rubber price was 50.2 Thai baht/kg. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [101]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, with data affected by the National Day holiday [101]. - View: The short - term rubber price is expected to fluctuate within a range [100]. - Valuation: On Friday, the basis between whole milk and the main RU contract was - 595 yuan/ton, narrowing by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the price difference between mixed standard rubber and the main RU contract was - 145 yuan/ton, narrowing by 75 yuan/ton [101]. - Strategy: - For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach or expect range - bound fluctuations for RU. - For inter - period trading, observe the arrival volume at ports and consider a positive spread strategy. - For inter - variety trading, conduct observations [101].