铸造铝合金产业链周报-20251019

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Rong, Wang Zongyuan - Author Affiliation: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - Ferrous and Precious Metals Group 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and tend to rise in the long - term. It is advisable to look for buying opportunities at low prices. The cost side provides strong support due to the cancellation of tax - refund policies and tight scrap aluminum supply. With the end - of - year car sales push, the fourth - quarter seasonal performance may be stronger [6]. - As of October 17, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.31 million tons to 13.41 million tons compared with the previous week, but the inventory pressure remains. In the second week of October, domestic car sales reached 686,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.14%. The "trade - in" policy has been effective, and the fourth - batch of funds was advanced in late September, which is conducive to boosting car consumption [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The current trading volume, position, and capital precipitation data are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - For the AD2511 - AD2512 contract pair on October 17, 2025, the fixed cost is 11.54 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 66.17 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 78 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton. Considering storage fees, capital costs, and other factors, the warehouse receipt cost is 20,815.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in August 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.726 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.35% [16][19]. - The short - term refined - scrap price difference is rising [24]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The Baotai ADC12 price remains flat, and the recycled - primary price difference fluctuates. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [31][36]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has declined, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional output share are also presented. For example, Guangdong accounts for 19.65% of the output [41][46]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current cost is estimated to be above the break - even line [47]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the social inventory is at a historical high. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [52][56]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production volume, regional production share, factory inventory, and regional inventory share are provided [59][60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel vehicles are in the end - of - year sales push stage, which will drive die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the car inventory warning index and the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts manufacturing [65][66].