国债期货周报-20251019

Report Overview - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Treasury bond futures contracts showed a weekly recovery, with the market bottoming out and oscillating [4][5] - Maintain the view that the medium - term trend is oscillating with a downward bias, and the current recovery has limited upside [4] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The market expected a full - line opening higher of treasury bond futures on Monday due to the weekend's phased escalation of the China - US trade war, and the market recovered in the bottom - oscillating process. Institutional net long positions increased weekly [5] - Short - term contracts are in a stable price state, while long - term contracts are more volatile. The year - on - year decline in inflation continued to narrow [5] - The treasury bond futures market shows a differentiation feature of strong long - end and pressured short - end, with the yield curve flattening. Short - term varieties' trading activity declined, and long - term varieties' open interest increased. Policy games, capital - side fluctuations, and the stock - bond seesaw effect are the core driving factors [5] 2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - Not provided in the summary part, only the figure title and data sources are given [9] 3. Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 2.83%, foreign capital decreased by 1.99%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 1.58% [10] - Weekly changes in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 11.12%, foreign capital increased by 17.05%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 15.27% [10]