铁矿石周度观点-20251019

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The risk appetite has declined, and the iron ore price has corrected from its high level. The supply - side disturbances of iron ore have been fully priced in the previous period. The market has now returned to trading the potential macro - negative impacts of Sino - US trade frictions. Coupled with the further erosion of industrial chain profits by the coking coal end, the relative strength of iron ore prices has weakened [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overall Shipping Volume Data: The global shipping volume in the recent week was 3207.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 186.6 million tons. The cumulative shipping volume from the beginning of the year to the current period was 126,682.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The Australian shipping volume was 1854 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 48.3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 212.6 million tons. The cumulative Australian shipping volume was 72,761.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The Brazilian shipping volume was 812.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 37.6 million tons. The cumulative Brazilian shipping volume was 30,761.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [4]. - Shipping Volume of Major Miners to China: Rio Tinto's shipping volume to China was 505.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 80.7 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 55.7 million tons. BHP's shipping volume to China was 501.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 60.2 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 33.7 million tons. FMG's shipping volume to China was 342.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.3 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 114 million tons. Vale's global shipping volume was 600.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 54.2 million tons [4]. - Supply - side Situation Analysis: The recent shipping volume of mainstream iron ore has recovered to a year - on - year high, and freight rates have increased. In Q4, the shipping volume of Rio Tinto and Vale is still expected to increase. The shipping volume from Peru and Ukraine has not recovered yet, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region has not recovered [5][16][20][27]. 3.2 Demand - Downstream Demand: The hot metal production remains at a relatively high level, but its marginal impact on ore prices has weakened. The scrap steel price has risen and then fallen, and the price difference between scrap steel and hot metal has shrunk again [5][30][34]. 3.3 Market Performance - Contract Performance: The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 771.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 545,000 lots, an increase of 69,200 lots. The average daily trading volume was 369,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 136,000 lots [7]. - Spot Price Performance: The spot price has fallen from its high level following the futures market. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) in Qingdao Port decreased from 923 yuan/ton last week to 901 yuan/ton this week [11]. 3.4 Inventory - The port inventory shows a seasonal accumulation trend in Q4 [38][40]. 3.5 Downstream Profit - The downstream industry has a high operating rate, but the profit has been continuously declining [42]. 3.6 Spot Category Price Difference - This week, the high - grade Carajás fines have corrected significantly, and the price difference between Carajás fines and PB fines has weakened. The price of domestic iron ore concentrate is still relatively strong compared to imported PB fines [45]. 3.7 Futures Monthly Spread - The valuation of the calendar spread for the bull spread is relatively high year - on - year. Recently, attention can be paid to the opportunity of spread narrowing caused by the macro - risk appetite correction [51]. 3.8 Basis Performance - This week, the futures price has fallen rapidly from its high level, and the basis has increased significantly [53].