能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20251019

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific views and strategies for glass and纯碱 (soda ash) separately: - Glass: Short - term: Oscillate weakly; Medium - term: Oscillate [2] - Soda Ash: Trend: Weakly [3] 2. Core Views - Glass: Short - term pressure comes from the unclear implementation of anti - deflation and anti - involution policies and the weak real - estate market. Although the policy factors are not clearly falsified, the demand is still not optimistic. The market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term and oscillating in the medium term [2]. - Soda Ash: The problems of high production and high inventory persist. Without large - scale production cuts or continuous improvement in the glass market, the price will be under pressure. The market is expected to be in an oscillating or weakly - priced state, depending on the actual situation of the glass industry and the implementation of anti - involution measures [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Supply: A 700 - ton/day production line in Dalian resumed ignition, with no water - draining or plate - guiding production lines. The weekly production remained stable. As of October 16, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) in China after excluding zombie lines, with 226 in production and 70 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 9th [2]. - Demand: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.4 days, a 5.5% week - on - week decrease and a 21.2% year - on - year decrease. Some enterprises reported a decline in orders, and some were in a no - order state, while others had project orders that could last for 20 - 40 days. Enterprises with pre - stocked raw materials were mainly digesting their inventories [2]. - Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million heavy boxes, a 2.31% week - on - week increase and an 11.14% year - on - year increase. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous period. Inventories in North China, East China, and Central China increased, while those in South China decreased slightly [2]. - Price and Profit: Recent spot transactions were poor, and prices in some regions decreased. The basis strengthened as futures prices fell more than spot prices. The profit for petroleum - coke fuel was about 91 yuan/ton, - 80 yuan/ton for natural - gas fuel, and 139 yuan/ton for coal fuel [15][20][23]. - Inventory and Downstream开工率: Recent spot transactions weakened, and the market mainly accumulated inventory. The impact of seasonal factors in the fourth quarter has weakened, but the inventory - reduction situation in the fourth quarter continues [31][34]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and Profit: Recent market transactions began to weaken, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was about 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was about 20 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous week [41][43]. - Capacity and Inventory: Market transactions weakened, and inventories in some regions began to rise. The sample inventory days were about 18.87 days, a 25.64% week - on - week increase [44][51]. Soda Ash - Supply and Maintenance: There were phased maintenance and production cuts in soda - ash enterprises. The production capacity utilization rate was 85%, down from 88.4% last week. The weekly output of heavy soda ash was about 415,500 tons. Some enterprises had maintenance plans, and the total maintenance volume in the fourth quarter was generally low [55][56]. - Price and Profit: The quotations of futures - cash merchants decreased by about 50 yuan/ton, and the low - end price in the Shahe area was 1,150 yuan/ton. Enterprise quotations changed little. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 129 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 30 yuan/ton [72][77]. - Inventory: The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers was about 1.7 million tons. The inventory of light soda ash was 760,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 940,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [60][62][65].