煤炭开采行业跟踪周报：节后补库需求显现，港口煤价较为坚挺-20251019

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal inventory remains at a high level, with a slight decrease in residential electricity demand in southern regions. However, short-term supply constraints and expectations for winter coal storage in northern regions suggest that coal prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of insurance capital inflow, with premium income showing positive growth concentrated towards leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets and high dividend assets leads to a preference for resource stocks [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - During the week from October 13 to October 17, the port thermal coal spot price increased by 39 CNY/ton, closing at 748 CNY/ton. The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.4857 million tons, a decrease of 100,300 tons or 5.30% from the previous week. The supply from production areas remained stable, although local rainfall caused a temporary reduction in coal output, leading to a decrease in port supply [1][11] - The average daily coal outflow from the Bohai Rim ports was 1.6987 million tons, down by 186,000 tons or 9.87% from the previous week. The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was 23.8 million tons, an increase of 546,000 tons or 2.27% from the previous week [1][33] Price Trends - As of October 17, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Datong South Suburb increased by 75 CNY/ton to 630 CNY/ton, while the price of 6000 kcal thermal block coal in Yanzhou rose by 80 CNY/ton to 950 CNY/ton. The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index increased by 3 CNY/ton to 680 CNY/ton [17][20] - The report also notes that the average domestic shipping cost increased by 9.67 CNY/ton to 43.05 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 28.96% [35] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on elastic targets in thermal coal, particularly those with low valuations, recommending companies such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [3][38]